Everton vs Sunderland: Premier League Clash Preview

Hill Dickinson Stadium stages a tense late-season Premier League meeting on 17 May 2026 as Everton host Sunderland in Round 37. With Everton sitting 10th on 49 points and Sunderland 12th on 48, both clubs are locked in a mini-league of their own in mid-table. There is no cup progression at stake here, but league position – and the financial and psychological boost of a top-half finish – is very much on the line.

Everton: solid but stuttering, and weakened by absences

In the league, Everton’s campaign has been defined by balance rather than brilliance: 13 wins, 10 draws and 13 defeats, with 46 goals scored and 46 conceded. That symmetry is mirrored in their mid-table ranking and in their recent wobble – the form line reads “DDLLD”, suggesting a side struggling to turn performances into victories as the season winds down.

At Hill Dickinson Stadium, Everton have been competitive but not dominant. Their home record (6 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, 25-24 goal difference) underlines a team that is hard to beat but not especially ruthless. They average 1.4 goals for and 1.3 against per home match, reinforcing the sense of fine margins. Six home clean sheets show they can shut games down, but four blanks at home hint at occasional attacking sterility.

Tactically, the season data points clearly to a preferred structure: a 4-2-3-1 used in 21 matches, with only a single outing in a 4-3-3. Expect a double pivot in front of the defence, a central playmaker and wide forwards supporting a lone striker. The absence list, however, is significant for how that structure functions.

Everton will be without Jarrad Branthwaite (hamstring injury), Jack Grealish (foot injury) and Idrissa Gueye (injury). Branthwaite’s absence removes a key central defender from an already balanced back line; Gueye’s unavailability weakens the ball-winning and screening in front of the defence, particularly important in a 4-2-3-1. Grealish’s injury deprives Everton of a high-level ball-carrier and creative presence between the lines, potentially forcing more direct or wing-oriented build-up.

Despite these setbacks, Everton’s defensive numbers across all phases remain respectable: 46 goals conceded in 36 games (1.3 per match) and 11 clean sheets in total. They have also failed to score in only 9 of 36 fixtures, so they usually carry some threat. Their “biggest wins” – 3-0 at home and 0-2 away – show the ceiling of this system when it clicks, while the heaviest home loss (1-4) is a reminder that if the double pivot is compromised, the back line can be exposed.

From set pieces, the Toffees have been reliable from the spot: 2 penalties taken, 2 scored. That gives them a small but clear edge if this becomes a tight, foul-heavy contest in the Sunderland box.

Sunderland: resilient, awkward, and better at home than away

Sunderland arrive one point and two places behind Everton, with a record of 12 wins, 12 draws and 12 defeats. Their goal difference (-9) tells the story of a side that often keeps games tight but struggles to outscore opponents consistently: 37 goals for, 46 against.

Their recent league form – “DDLLW” – is as mixed as Everton’s. A run of two draws, two defeats and then a win suggests a team that has flirted with a slump but found a result just in time to steady themselves heading into this trip.

The away record is the main concern for Sunderland: 4 wins, 6 draws and 8 defeats from 18, with only 14 goals scored and 27 conceded. They average 0.8 goals for and 1.5 against on the road, a stark contrast to their more assured home numbers. Eight away games without scoring underline how easily their attack can be blunted when they leave the Stadium of Light.

In terms of structure, Sunderland are tactically flexible. The 4-2-3-1 has been their most-used shape (19 times), but they have also deployed 4-3-3 (5 matches), 5-4-1 (5), 4-4-2 (3), 4-1-4-1 (3) and even 3-4-3 once. That variety suggests a coach willing to adjust to the opponent and game state. Away to a mid-table Everton, a more conservative variant – perhaps 4-2-3-1 with a deeper block, or even 5-4-1 – would not be a surprise.

Defensively, Sunderland’s season numbers are almost identical to Everton’s (46 conceded, 1.3 per match), and they also boast 11 clean sheets. But the distribution is telling: 7 of those have come at home, only 4 away. When they do collapse, they can do so heavily – their biggest away defeat is 3-0, and they have conceded up to 4 on their travels.

Sunderland’s penalty record is also spotless at team level: 4 taken, 4 scored. In a match that could be decided by a single moment, that composure from the spot is a quiet but important asset.

Team news will force adjustments. Daniel Ballard is suspended after a red card, removing a key defensive option and possibly pushing Sunderland into a reshuffle at centre-back. Romain Mundle is also out with a hamstring injury, trimming their attacking depth and wide options.

Head-to-head: recent edge to Everton, but Sunderland’s cup memory matters

Looking at the last five competitive meetings (friendlies excluded), Everton have the clearer edge in regulation time.

• On 10 January 2026 in the FA Cup Round of 64 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Everton 1-1 Sunderland after 90 minutes and extra time, with Sunderland winning 0-3 on penalties.
• On 3 November 2025 in the Premier League at the Stadium of Light, Sunderland 1-1 Everton.
• On 20 September 2017 in the League Cup 3rd Round at Goodison Park, Everton 3-0 Sunderland, Everton win.
• On 25 February 2017 in the Premier League at Goodison Park, Everton 2-0 Sunderland, Everton win.
• On 12 September 2016 in the Premier League at the Stadium of Light, Sunderland 0-3 Everton, Everton win.

Across these five, Everton have 3 wins (all in 90 minutes), Sunderland have 0 wins in regulation, and there have been 2 draws. However, that FA Cup tie in January 2026, played at this same stadium, ended in a Sunderland triumph on penalties after a 1-1 draw. Psychologically, Sunderland know they can come to this ground, stay in the game and progress – even if that particular success came via a shootout.

Tactical battle zones

Without Branthwaite and Gueye, Everton’s central spine is thinner. In a 4-2-3-1, the remaining pivot will have to cover more ground, and the centre-backs may receive less protection between the lines. Sunderland’s best route into the match is to crowd that zone with an extra midfielder or a dropping No.10, forcing Everton’s back line to step out and opening space for runners.

Everton, conversely, will look to exploit Sunderland’s away fragility and the absence of Ballard. Their biggest home win this season (3-0) shows they can overrun visitors when the press and tempo are right. Expect them to push full-backs high, trusting their 11 clean sheets and generally solid home defensive record to cope with counters.

Set pieces could be decisive. Both sides are efficient from penalties, and Everton’s home-goals profile (25 scored, 24 conceded) suggests a steady stream of box entries and duels. Sunderland’s away defensive record (27 conceded) indicates vulnerability to sustained pressure and second balls.

Discipline is another subtle factor. Everton’s yellow-card distribution spikes after half-time, particularly between 46-60 and 76-90 minutes, suggesting occasional late-game anxiety. Sunderland also pick up a high volume of cautions in the 46-60 window and have three red cards across the season, one of which now rules Ballard out. In a tight contest, a dismissal could swing everything.

The verdict

On paper, Everton’s home advantage, slightly better overall goal difference (0 versus Sunderland’s -9) and Sunderland’s modest away attack (14 goals in 18) point towards the hosts having a narrow edge. Yet Everton’s recent form dip and their trio of important absentees drag that edge back towards the middle.

Sunderland’s tactical flexibility and their positive memory from the January 2026 FA Cup shootout at this venue suggest they will not be overawed. However, their chronic difficulty scoring away and the disruption in central defence without Ballard are significant concerns.

This fixture has the feel of a controlled, cagey game rather than a shootout. Everton’s capacity to generate a bit more at home, combined with Sunderland’s away bluntness, tilts the balance slightly towards the hosts. A low-scoring Everton win or another draw fits the data best, with a single goal – perhaps from a set piece or penalty – likely to decide whether 10th or 12th looks a lot more respectable by the end of the weekend.