Cape Verde Surprises Again Against Uruguay

Cape Verde keep tearing up the script. After holding Spain, they’ve now stood firm against Uruguay as well, and the World Cup’s so‑called minnows are making a mockery of expectations.

This time, though, the public were at least partially ready for them.

When Cape Verde faced Spain, a staggering 99.65% of users playing the BBC’s new predictor game backed them to lose. Against Uruguay, that figure dropped to 83%. Still heavily against them, still wrong, but the tide of opinion is edging closer to reality.

The predictors are not completely off, though. Across the second round of 24 group games, users, BBC Sport’s Chris Sutton and AI have all sharpened up. Some more than others.

Users outpacing the experts

Sutton, BBC Sport’s predictions expert, improved on his opening round. After getting 12 results right from the first batch of group fixtures, he nailed 14 out of 24 this time. A solid return.

AI – generated using Microsoft Copilot Chat, asked simply to “predict the results of the second round of World Cup group games” – also found a bit more rhythm. It climbed from 13 correct results to 15 out of 24.

The real surge came from the users. They jumped from 13 to 18 correct predictions out of 24, outscoring both Sutton and the AI. Crowd wisdom, at least for now, is leading the field.

Now comes the real test: the final round of group matches. With Scotland facing Brazil, England taking on Panama and qualification on the line across the board, this is where prediction turns into pressure.

Sutton has gone through all 104 games at this World Cup, even mapping out how he thinks each of the 12 groups will finish. The users, via the BBC’s new predictor game, can do the same – picking a winner or backing a draw in every match as the group stage reaches its sharp end.

And the next set of calls starts in Mexico City.

Mexico v Czech Republic – rotation vs desperation

Mexico City / Thursday, 25 June / 02:00 BST

Mexico are already through as group winners. Job done, at least for now. That status shapes everything about this game at Estadio Azteca.

With qualification secured, they are expected to rotate heavily. Fresh legs, fringe players, minutes managed. On paper, that opens a door for the Czech Republic, who must win to have any chance of sneaking into the last 32.

But this is Mexico on home soil, back in the towering bowl of the Azteca, where they thumped South Africa. The altitude bites, the crowd roars, and visiting teams often fade as the game wears on. As Alistair Bruce-Ball pointed out on 5 live, this Mexico side will still want to put on a show for their own people, regardless of how many changes they make.

The Czechs need everything to go right. Mexico need only to maintain standards.

Sutton is going bold: he’s backing the Czech Republic to edge it, 0-1.
AI sees goals at both ends, but still a Mexican defeat, predicting 1-2.

Jordan v Argentina – Messi wrapped in cotton wool

Dallas / Sunday, 28 June / 03:00

Argentina have already wrapped up the group. That allows them to do something almost unthinkable in any other context: leave out Lionel Messi.

Sutton expects exactly that. Rest now, trophies later. Protecting Messi at this stage, he argues, boosts Argentina’s chances of going all the way, even if it dents the forward’s hopes of the Golden Boot or adding further distance to his status as the World Cup’s all-time leading scorer.

His fans will not like it. They rarely enjoy seeing him on the bench, especially at a World Cup. But the logic is brutal and simple: keep him fresh for the knockout rounds.

The harsh truth for Jordan is that, in Sutton’s eyes, it won’t matter. Messi or no Messi, he believes they will not live with Argentina’s firepower.

His call is emphatic: 0-3 to Argentina.
AI agrees completely, also going 0-3.

Portugal v Colombia – Ronaldo scores, but is it enough?

Miami / Sunday, 28 June / 00:30

This one carries real weight. Portugal need a win to top the group. Nothing else will do.

They arrive in Miami on the back of a big win over Uzbekistan, a result that showcased their attacking options and underlined their threat. Colombia, though, present a far sterner examination.

Sutton senses a twist. He’s calling a draw, a result that would deny Portugal top spot. In his prediction, Cristiano Ronaldo still dominates the narrative, scoring both of Portugal’s goals, but the defence cannot hold and Colombia grab a point.

His scoreline: 2-2.
AI is less forgiving. It has Portugal edging it 1-2, enough to get the job done.

One thing Sutton is certain about: Ronaldo is not going away. With a nod to the forward’s remarkable longevity, he jokes that the Portugal captain will still be going at the 2040 World Cup.

No one is writing his name out of the headlines just yet.

England v Panama – Tuchel under scrutiny

New York / Saturday, 27 June / 22:00

Thomas Tuchel’s England have already shown both sides of themselves in this tournament. Against Croatia, his half-time team talk drew praise as England turned a tight game into an impressive win. Against Ghana, the same interval intervention fell flat.

The 5 live analysis was clear: whatever he tried in that dressing room, it didn’t land. Ghana fought back, England faltered, and questions followed.

Now comes Panama, and with it, a different kind of pressure. England need to win. No experiments, no complacency.

Sutton expects changes, but not a complete overhaul. Harry Kane starts. That much feels non-negotiable. On the flanks, he can see Bukayo Saka and Marcus Rashford coming in to inject pace and direct running.

He wants Tuchel to go further. Saka, he says, should start ahead of Noni Madueke. At left-back, he argues that Nico O’Reilly must come in for Djed Spence, calling O’Reilly the better all-round footballer.

Panama have been stubborn so far, losing 1-0 in both of their games. Tight margins, organised defending, no collapses. Sutton still expects England to find another gear and finally win with a bit of breathing space.

Kane, who missed a big late chance against Ghana, is tipped to respond. Sutton sees him “back in the goals” and England easing through.

His prediction: 0-3 to England.
AI matches him, also going 0-3.

The users have outperformed both man and machine in the latest round. Now the final group fixtures arrive, tension rises, and the margins shrink. Who blinks first: the teams on the pitch, or the millions trying to second‑guess them?