Levante vs Mallorca: La Liga Relegation Clash Preview

Levante and Mallorca meet at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia on 17 May 2026 in a high‑stakes La Liga relegation clash, with both sides locked on 39 points after 36 matches and currently in the bottom three. Levante sit 19th and Mallorca 18th, both tagged for relegation to LaLiga2, so this penultimate‑round fixture carries enormous survival implications.

From the standings, the teams are almost identical overall: 10 wins, 9 draws, 17 defeats and 44 goals scored each. The difference is defensive: Levante have conceded 59 (goal difference -15), Mallorca 55 (goal difference -11). Home/away splits matter here: Levante at home are 6‑5‑7 with 24:28 goals, while Mallorca away are a poor 2‑3‑13 with 16:34 goals. That extreme contrast between Levante’s solid home base and Mallorca’s very weak away record is central to the betting angle.

Recent form favours Levante. In the prediction model’s last‑five sample, Levante show 67% form, scoring 9 and conceding 9 (1.8 for and against per game), with attacking index 60% and defensive 40%. Mallorca’s last five are weaker at 33% form, 5 scored and 7 conceded (1.0 for, 1.4 against), attack 33%, defence 53%. Both are flawed defensively, but Levante are creating and converting more, especially at home.

Over the full league campaign (verified via standings), both sides average 1.2 goals scored per match. Levante concede 1.6 per game (59 in 36), Mallorca 1.5 (55 in 36). The prediction engine’s goal line flags both home and away as “under 2.5”, which aligns with their season patterns: in the prediction data, Levante’s goal distribution shows only 6 of 36 matches over 2.5 goals, while Mallorca have 5 of 36 over 2.5. That supports a low‑scoring expectation despite the relegation pressure.

Head-to-Head Data

Head‑to‑head data (excluding friendlies) confirms a generally tight matchup. On 2025‑10‑26 in La Liga at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Mallorca and Levante drew 1‑1, with Levante leading 1‑0 at half‑time before being pegged back. On 2022‑01‑08 in La Liga at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Levante won 2‑0 at home. On 2021‑10‑02 in La Liga at Iberostar Estadi, Mallorca won 1‑0 at home. Going further back, on 2020‑07‑09 in La Liga at Iberostar Estadi, Mallorca beat Levante 2‑0, while on 2019‑11‑22 in La Liga at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Levante won 2‑1. Earlier Segunda División and La Liga meetings (2016‑10‑15, 2017‑03‑25, 2013‑05‑05, 2012‑12‑09) show a mix of Levante home wins, Mallorca home wins and draws, underlining that neither side has historically dominated this pairing. The club friendly on 2020‑08‑27 at Pinatar Arena Football Center (Levante 2‑1 Mallorca) should not be factored into competitive H2H.

Prediction Model

The official prediction model gives Levante a 45% win probability, draw 45%, and Mallorca only 10%, with overall comparison index 55.3% vs 44.7% in Levante’s favour. It explicitly recommends: “Double chance : Levante or draw”, and notes Levante as the winner side in a “Win or draw” comment. That aligns strongly with the home/away split and recent form.

Market prices broadly agree that Levante are favourites but not overwhelming. Across major bookmakers, home odds cluster around 2.10–2.20, draws around 3.25–3.47, and away wins around 3.15–3.66. Converting roughly, the market implies something like 44–46% for Levante, 27–30% for the draw, and 27–30% for Mallorca, while the model is far more pessimistic on Mallorca (10%). That creates value on the model‑backed side in double‑chance markets.

Betting verdict: the clearest, model‑aligned angle is Levante or Draw (Double Chance), which matches the official advice and is strongly supported by Mallorca’s 2‑3‑13 away record. With both teams tending to low‑scoring matches and the prediction goals flagging under 2.5 for both sides, a correct‑score profile around 1‑0 or 1‑1 is plausible. My forecast is Levante to avoid defeat, with a slight lean to a narrow home win in a tight, low‑margin relegation battle.