Everton vs Sunderland: Premier League Match Preview

Everton host Sunderland at Hill Dickinson Stadium in a Round 37 Premier League fixture that has the feel of a mid‑table shootout with real European outside hopes attached. Everton sit 10th on 49 points (13‑10‑13, 46‑46), Sunderland are 12th on 48 points (12‑12‑12, 37‑46). The market and the model both lean towards the hosts, but the data points to a relatively tight contest.

Looking at league form over the full 36‑game sample, Everton have been more attack‑minded: 46 goals for (1.3 per match) versus Sunderland’s 37 (1.0 per match). At home, Everton average 1.4 scored and 1.3 conceded, while Sunderland’s away profile is weaker, with just 14 goals scored (0.8 per match) and 27 conceded (1.5 per match). That home/away split is a key structural edge for Everton.

The prediction model’s comparison metrics are clear: overall edge 60.0% vs 40.2% in Everton’s favour, with attacking index 64% vs 36% and goal metrics 77% vs 23%. Defensively it is closer (Everton 48%, Sunderland 52%), and both concede 46 league goals in total, underlining that neither back line is dominant. Everton’s last‑five snapshot shows strong attacking output (9 scored, 1.8 per game) but a fragile defence (11 conceded, 2.2 per game). Sunderland’s last five are more modest going forward (5 goals, 1.0 per game) and similarly leaky at the back (10 conceded, 2.0 per game).

Form comparison over the last eight league matches is mixed: Everton’s standings form string “DDLLD” over the latest five suggests a struggling patch (0‑3‑2 in that window), while Sunderland’s “DDLLW” indicates they have at least found one recent win. However, the model’s form index still rates Sunderland higher (63% vs 38%), meaning Everton’s edge is more about structural and attacking metrics than pure momentum.

Head‑to‑Head Data

Head‑to‑head data, excluding friendlies and separating competitions, shows a nuanced picture:

• 2026‑01‑10, FA Cup Round of 64 at Hill Dickinson Stadium: Everton 1‑1 Sunderland, Sunderland winning the tie on penalties 3‑0 after 120 minutes.
• 2025‑11‑03, Premier League at Stadium of Light: Sunderland 1‑1 Everton.
• 2017‑09‑20, League Cup 3rd Round at Goodison Park: Everton 3‑0 Sunderland.
• 2017‑02‑25, Premier League at Goodison Park: Everton 2‑0 Sunderland.
• 2016‑09‑12, Premier League at Stadium of Light: Sunderland 0‑3 Everton.
• 2016‑05‑11, Premier League at Stadium of Light: Sunderland 3‑0 Everton.
• 2015‑11‑01, Premier League at Goodison Park: Everton 6‑2 Sunderland.
• 2015‑05‑09, Premier League at Goodison Park (Liverpool): Everton 0‑2 Sunderland.
• 2014‑11‑09, Premier League at Stadium of Light (Sunderland): Sunderland 1‑1 Everton.
• 2014‑04‑12, Premier League at Stadium of Light (Sunderland): Sunderland 0‑1 Everton.

In Premier League meetings specifically, recent history shows Everton generally more productive, especially at home (for example, 2‑0 on 2017‑02‑25 and 6‑2 on 2015‑11‑01), but Sunderland have had their moments, notably the 3‑0 win on 2016‑05‑11 and the 2‑0 away win on 2015‑05‑09. The January 2026 FA Cup tie at this same stadium ending 1‑1 with Sunderland progressing on penalties underlines that the gap on the day may not be huge.

The official prediction model gives Everton a 45% win probability, the draw also 45%, and Sunderland just 10%. Its explicit advice is “Double chance: Everton or draw”, with a goals projection pointing to under 2.5 for Everton and under 1.5 for Sunderland, suggesting a relatively low‑scoring encounter.

The market is broadly aligned: home odds cluster around 1.80–1.90, draw roughly 3.60–3.86, away 4.00–4.36. That prices Everton as clear favourites but not a lock. Translating the model’s advice into betting terms:

• Main pick: Double chance Everton or Draw. This directly matches the official recommendation and is strongly supported by Everton’s superior home attack versus Sunderland’s weak away scoring.
• For those accepting more risk, Everton straight win at around 1.85 is justified by the structural and attacking edge, but the high model draw probability (45%) warns against over‑staking.
• Goals market: With both teams averaging 1.3 conceded but the model leaning to under 2.5 overall, a cautious angle is Everton win & under 4.5 goals or simply avoiding aggressive overs.

Prediction: Everton to edge a tight game, something like 1‑0 or 2‑0, with the most value‑aligned position being Everton or Draw in the double‑chance market.