CSKA Sofia vs OFI Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

CSKA Sofia face OFI at National Stadium Vasil Levski in Sofia on 27 August 2026 in the second leg of their UEFA Europa League play-off tie. After a bruising first meeting in Heraklion, the Bulgarian side return home needing a big response to keep their group-stage hopes alive.

OFI took full control of the tie with a 3-0 home win at Pagritio on 20 August 2026, putting them in a commanding position ahead of this decisive night in Sofia. CSKA Sofia must find goals without conceding to have any realistic chance of turning the tie around, while OFI know that even a narrow defeat would be enough to see them through.

With Europa League qualification money and prestige at stake, this play-off second leg is set up as a classic clash between a side strong at home but under pressure, and a Greek outfit that has already shown its cutting edge and defensive solidity in this matchup.

CSKA Sofia vs OFI Key Stats

• CSKA Sofia have played 7 Europa League matches this campaign, winning 4, drawing 1 and losing 2, with 10 goals scored and 9 conceded.
• The only previous meeting between these sides came on 20 August 2026, when OFI beat CSKA Sofia 3-0 in Heraklion in the Europa League play-offs.
• Across their Europa League statistics, CSKA Sofia have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches, while OFI have 1 clean sheet from their single match so far.

CSKA Sofia vs OFI — Tale of the Tape

• Position: Not available vs Not available
• Points: Not available vs Not available
• Goals For: 10 (CSKA Sofia tournament statistics) vs 3 (OFI tournament statistics)
• Goals Against: 9 (CSKA Sofia tournament statistics) vs 0 (OFI tournament statistics)
• Clean Sheets: 3 (CSKA Sofia tournament statistics) vs 1 (OFI tournament statistics)

There is no traditional league table context here, as this is a UEFA Europa League play-off tie rather than a group stage fixture. Instead, the comparison rests on tournament statistics and the first-leg result. CSKA Sofia’s seven Europa League matches show a balanced profile: 4 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with a goal difference of +1, suggesting they are competitive but not dominant at this level.

OFI’s sample size is much smaller but highly impressive: a single Europa League match, the 3-0 home win over CSKA Sofia. That result underlines a potent attack and a defence that has yet to be breached in the competition. While CSKA have the greater body of work, OFI arrive in Sofia with the psychological and numerical edge from the first leg.

CSKA Sofia vs OFI Key Matchups

Bruno Jordão vs OFI’s back line

Bruno Jordão is emerging as a key attacking figure for CSKA Sofia in this Europa League campaign. The 27-year-old midfielder has scored 1 goal in 2 appearances, also featuring in the top assists list for the competition for CSKA, albeit without an assist to his name. His ability to arrive from midfield and contribute directly to goals will be crucial as CSKA chase a multi-goal comeback.

OFI’s defence, which kept a clean sheet in their only Europa League outing, has so far been flawless in the tournament, conceding 0 goals. With CSKA averaging 1.4 goals per game across 7 matches but failing to score in Heraklion, Jordão’s creativity and finishing from midfield could be the difference between a sterile home performance and the explosive start they need.

Pastor vs OFI’s forwards

Defender Pastor has quietly become an important two-way presence for CSKA Sofia. In the Europa League, he has 1 assist from 2 appearances, placing him among the competition’s top assist providers for his club. His contribution going forward from the back adds another attacking outlet, which CSKA may need as they push numbers upfield.

At the same time, Pastor and the rest of the CSKA back line must deal with an OFI attack that scored 3 times in the first leg and averages 3.0 goals per game in the competition so far. OFI’s forwards have shown they can be clinical, scoring in three different time windows (16–30, 46–60 and 76–90 minutes). Pastor’s defensive positioning and decision-making when CSKA inevitably take risks could be pivotal in preventing an away goal that would likely kill the tie.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These clubs are unfamiliar opponents on the European stage, with their only recent encounter coming in the first leg of this play-off tie. That match sets the tone for the second leg in Sofia.

• 20 August 2026: OFI 3-0 CSKA Sofia (UEFA Europa League)

CSKA Sofia vs OFI Prediction

Stats suggest a complex picture. On one hand, the predictions model leans marginally towards OFI as the likely qualifier, naming the Greek side as the expected winner of the tie. However, the match outcome probabilities for the second leg itself are evenly split: CSKA Sofia have a 10% chance of winning, the draw is rated at 45%, and an OFI win is also at 45%. That distribution points to a tight, cagey encounter in Sofia, with a very high likelihood that OFI do enough to protect their first-leg advantage.

CSKA Sofia’s Europa League record of 4 wins in 7 matches, with 3 clean sheets, indicates they are capable of strong home performances, especially using flexible systems such as 4-3-3 and 4-1-4-1. Yet the 3-0 defeat in Heraklion exposed defensive vulnerabilities, particularly late in games, where a significant share of their goals conceded has come in the final quarter-hour.

OFI, by contrast, arrive with perfect tournament form: 1 win from 1 match, 3 goals scored, none conceded, and a clean sheet. Their last-five metrics are striking — 100 in form and defence indices — even if built on a small sample. They have shown they can control the tempo and strike in key moments, and an away goal in Sofia would likely settle the contest.

Given the need for CSKA to chase the game and OFI’s proven ability to counter and defend solidly, the second leg could be more balanced than the first, with the home side pushing but wary of conceding. The high predicted probability of a draw suggests a low-scoring, tactical battle rather than another open contest.

Predicted Score: CSKA Sofia 1-1 OFI

CSKA Sofia Recent Form

In Europa League tournament play, CSKA Sofia’s recent form reads as a mixed but generally positive run. Across 7 matches they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 10 goals scored and 9 conceded. Their last-five performance index sits at 47, with attacking output at 28 and defensive strength at 67, underlining a side that has been more reliable at the back than in front of goal, the first leg in Greece being a notable exception.

OFI Recent Form

OFI’s Europa League form is perfect so far, albeit from a single match. Their tournament form string is simply a win, reflecting the 3-0 victory over CSKA Sofia. Their last-five metrics are eye-catching: form at 100, attack at 17 and defence at 100, supported by 3 goals scored and 0 conceded. It is a small sample, but it confirms that OFI arrive in Sofia with confidence and momentum.

CSKA Sofia Possible Starting Lineup

Likely key players for CSKA Sofia (grouped by position):
Goalkeepers: D. Evtimov; F. Lapoukhov; D. Nikolov.
Defenders: J. Gbamin; T. Ivanov; Adrián Lapeña; Á. Martino; Pastor; Facundo Santiago Rodríguez; A. Tunchev; A. Yordanov; Tamimou Ouorou.
Midfielders: G. Chorbadzhiyski; M. Ebong; J. Eto'o; J. Iliev; Bruno Jordão; V. Kaymakanov; P. Panayotov; S. Sensi; I. Solet Bomawoko; M. Brahimi; C. Itu; Léo Pereira.
Forwards: S. Godoy; A. Piedrahita; I. Pittas; R. Zhivkov; J. Zwarts.

CSKA have used a variety of shapes in the Europa League, including 4-3-3, 4-3-1-2, 3-5-2, 4-4-2 and 4-1-4-1. That tactical flexibility suggests they can switch between a more aggressive, winger-based approach and a compact midfield block depending on game state. Expect an attack-minded setup in Sofia, with Bruno Jordão and Pastor key to progressing the ball and creating chances, while experienced forwards like I. Pittas and J. Zwarts are likely to shoulder the goal-scoring burden.

OFI Possible Starting Lineup

Likely key players for OFI (grouped by position):
Goalkeepers: N. Christogeorgos; Manouel Kalafatis; P. Katsikas; K. Lilo.
Defenders: L. Dickmann; Borja González; Pavlos Kenourgiakis; Lefteris Kontekas; K. Kostoulas; K. Krizmanić; N. Marinakis; D. Nikolaou; A. Poungouras; C. Sielis.
Midfielders: N. Athanasiou; S. Almasidis; T. Androutsos; G. Apostolakis; A. Bouchalakis; Aitor Cantalapiedra; M. Chnaris; G. Kanellópoulos; Z. Karachalios; K. Lagoudakis; Thanasis Sitmalidis; T. Nuss.
Forwards: Charalampos Antonakakis; T. Fountas; A. Leya; T. Romano; G. Theodosoulakis.

OFI have so far lined up in a 3-4-3 in the Europa League, a system that offers defensive solidity with three centre-backs and width from the wing-backs. That shape worked superbly in the 3-0 first-leg win, balancing compact defending with quick transitions. In Sofia, they are likely to retain the back three, perhaps with a slightly deeper midfield line to absorb CSKA’s pressure while looking to exploit space on the counter through mobile forwards like T. Fountas and A. Leya.

CSKA Sofia Team News

No significant absences reported.

OFI Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

CSKA Sofia:

• None reported.

OFI:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: CSKA Sofia vs OFI

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Back CSKA Sofia to win the second leg. Market odds for the home win range from 1.58 to 1.65, implying an approximate probability between 60.6% (1 ÷ 1.65 × 100) and 63.3% (1 ÷ 1.58 × 100). While the prediction probabilities rate CSKA’s win chance at only 10%, the betting market clearly expects a strong home reaction, and CSKA’s broader Europa League record of 4 wins in 7 matches supports the idea that they can at least edge this single game, even if the tie overall still favours OFI.
• Goals Tip: Consider a low-scoring match (for example, under 2.5 goals, where available). CSKA average 1.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match in the tournament, while OFI have scored 3 and conceded none, but that is from a single game. The high 45% probability assigned to the draw and the need for OFI only to manage the game suggest a more controlled, tactical encounter than the first leg. Use the specific under/over odds from your chosen bookmaker to find value in a tighter scoreline.
• Value Tip: Look at OFI in the double-chance market (Draw or OFI). With the prediction probabilities giving OFI a 45% chance of winning and the draw also at 45%, the combined chance of them avoiding defeat is very high. Yet the 1X2 market prices OFI as clear underdogs at 5.00–5.80 (implied win probability roughly 17.2%–20.0%), creating potential value if you can find competitive double-chance odds. OFI’s 3-0 first-leg win and perfect defensive record in the tournament justify a cautious but positive stance on them not losing this leg.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.