Burnley vs Wolves: Premier League Relegation Showdown

Turf Moor hosts a high‑stakes relegation dead rubber on 24 May 2026, with 19th‑placed Burnley (21 points) facing bottom side Wolves (19 points) in the final Premier League round. Both are already condemned to the Championship, but there is pride, prize money positions, and a direct table swap on the line.

Across the full campaign, Burnley have 4‑9‑24 from 37 matches, scoring 37 and conceding 74. Wolves are even worse in attack at 3‑10‑24 with only 26 goals scored and 67 conceded. Burnley’s home record is 2‑6‑10 (17:28), Wolves’ away record a dire 0‑5‑13 (7:33). That winless away profile is key: Wolves have failed to win any of their 18 away league games.

Recent form metrics from the prediction model, however, tilt slightly towards Wolves. Over the last five matches, Burnley’s form index is 7%, with 4 goals for and 11 against (0.8 scored, 2.2 conceded on average). Wolves are marginally better at 13% form, but still poor, with 2 goals for and 9 against (0.4 scored, 1.8 conceded). Both attacks are badly misfiring, and both defences leak heavily.

The deeper league‑wide attacking indices show Burnley averaging 1.0 goals per match (37 in 37) versus Wolves at 0.7 (26 in 37). Burnley’s goals are relatively spread, with a slight late push: 26.32% of their goals come from minutes 76–90. Wolves also peak late, with 31.03% of their goals between 76–90. That supports a profile of slow‑burn, low‑quality games that can open up in the final quarter rather than early.

Defensively, Burnley concede 2.0 per game, Wolves 1.8. Burnley are particularly vulnerable just before half‑time (27.40% of goals conceded in minutes 31–45) and again late (23.29% in 76–90). Wolves’ concession pattern is more evenly spread, but they are also weakest around the end of each half (23.44% in 31–45 and 20.31% in 76–90). Overall, both sides’ data point to frail defences but attacks too weak to reliably exploit that.

Head‑to‑Head Data

Head‑to‑head data (excluding club friendlies) show a balanced, low‑margin rivalry. On 26 October 2025 in the Premier League at Molineux Stadium, Burnley won 3‑2 after a 2‑2 first half, showing they can hurt Wolves in transition. On 28 August 2024 in the League Cup 2nd Round, also at Molineux, Wolves won 2‑0, controlling the tie. On 2 April 2024 in the Premier League at Turf Moor, the sides drew 1‑1, while on 5 December 2023 at Molineux, Wolves edged a tight 1‑0 league win. Further back, on 24 April 2022 at Turf Moor, Burnley won 1‑0 in the Premier League, and on 1 December 2021 at Molineux they played out a 0‑0 league draw. On 25 April 2021 at Molineux, Burnley produced a 4‑0 Premier League away win, and on 21 December 2020 at Turf Moor they beat Wolves 2‑1 in the league. On 15 July 2020 at Turf Moor, they drew 1‑1 in the Premier League. The only club friendly in this dataset, a 3‑0 Wolves win on 9 July 2022, must be treated separately and not mixed with competitive trends.

Model Comparison Metrics

The model’s comparison metrics marginally favour Wolves overall (total index 54.2% vs 45.8% for Burnley). Form is rated 67% to 33% in Wolves’ favour, defensive index 55% to 45%, while Burnley get the edge in attack (67% vs 33%). The Poisson‑based distribution surprisingly leans 70% towards Burnley, but the final prediction engine still names Wolves as the more likely side to avoid defeat, with a winner comment “Win or draw” and advice “Double chance : draw or Wolves”. Implied probabilities from the prediction are 10% Burnley, 45% draw, 45% Wolves.

Market prices are more balanced. Across major bookmakers, home odds cluster roughly between 2.40 and 2.56, draws around 3.40–3.66, and away wins around 2.60–2.84. That implies the market sees a near‑coin‑flip on the match winner, with a slightly stronger lean to Burnley at Turf Moor due to Wolves’ winless away record.

Aligning the model’s 90% non‑Burnley probability with the odds, the standout value angle is to follow the official advice: back Wolves on the double chance (X2). It captures both the 45% model draw probability and 45% away win probability, while avoiding exposure to Burnley’s weak form and fragile defence.

Given both attacks’ numbers and the goals under/over profiles (only 3 of Burnley’s 37 and 1 of Wolves’ 37 league games crossing 2.5 goals in the prediction dataset), a low‑scoring outcome is also likely. However, the core bet should stay strictly with the model:

Betting verdict: Double chance – draw or Wolves (X2) as the primary position, with a cautious expectation of a tight, low‑margin game.