Aston Villa's Forward Line Revamp: Nicolas Jackson Joins

Aston Villa have ripped up their forward line and started again.

Nicolas Jackson is in. Ollie Watkins is on his way out. And the way Unai Emery’s side attack is about to change.

Villa have completed a deal worth up to £65m for Jackson, who arrives from Chelsea as the club’s new record signing, nudging Johan Manzambi down that list. The move is set to dovetail with Watkins’ expected switch to Saudi Pro League giants Al-Hilal, ending a six-year spell in which he became the face of Villa’s resurgence.

This is not a minor tweak. It is a reset.

A squad torn up and reassembled

Emery’s rebuild has been ruthless. Morgan Rogers, Ezri Konsa, Youri Tielemans and Lucas Digne have already gone. Jackson, 25, joins a wave of new arrivals that includes Manzambi, Joao Gomes, Zion Suzuki and Matteo Ruggeri.

That churn told on the opening weekend. Villa, disjointed and short of rhythm, were thrashed 4-0 at Brighton.

Up front, the picture was even starker. With Watkins, 30, unavailable and both Tammy Abraham and 17-year-old Brian Madjo injured, Villa kicked off the season without a recognised centre-forward. Emiliano Buendia, a playmaker by trade, was asked to lead the line.

The Jackson deal changes that. Emery finally has a specialist number nine again – but not one cut from the same cloth as the man he is replacing.

Not a Watkins clone

Watkins leaves behind a formidable body of work: 108 goals in 278 games, relentless running and a central role in Villa’s climb under Emery. Replacing that is a daunting task.

On raw output last season, Jackson did more than just keep pace.

At Bayern Munich, the Senegal international produced 11 goals and three assists in 1,320 minutes in all competitions. That’s 1.0 goal involvement per 90 minutes. Watkins, across a much heavier workload for Villa, registered 21 goals and five assists in 3,837 minutes – 0.6 per 90.

Jackson shot more often and from better positions. He averaged 3.8 shots per 90 to Watkins’ 2.6, and 2.2 shots on target compared with 1.2. His expected-goals figure came in at 0.7 xG per 90; Watkins’ was 0.5. Jackson also lived more regularly inside the box, with 8.5 touches in the opposition area per 90, well clear of Watkins’ 5.6.

That habit of arriving in dangerous zones is not new. Since January 2020, among players with at least 5,000 Premier League minutes, only Erling Haaland has posted a higher non-penalty xG per 90 than Jackson’s 0.55.

Getting there is not the issue. What happens next has always been the question.

The finishing debate

Jackson’s time at Chelsea framed the argument around him. Across his two Premier League seasons at Stamford Bridge, he consistently underperformed his xG.

In 2023-24 he scored 14 league goals from 18.7 xG. The following campaign he hit 10 from 12.3 xG. In England, he has converted 18 of 61 big chances so far. Watkins, for all his reputation as a reliable finisher, also left chances on the pitch, scoring 24 of 73 big opportunities for Villa since 2020.

Look closer at last season and the gap between the two narrows almost to nothing. Jackson converted 19.6% of his shots and 40.9% of his big chances. Watkins’ numbers: 18.9% and 43.2%.

There is, though, a crucial difference. Volume.

Watkins started 43 matches and logged almost three times as many minutes. Jackson started only 15 of his 34 appearances. Opta’s data notes that a substitute-heavy, limited sample can inflate per-90 figures. The question now is whether those numbers survive when he is asked to be the main man, every week, in a physically demanding system.

A striker built for the press

Where Jackson does clearly separate himself is off the ball.

He averaged 34 high pressures per 90 last season, just ahead of Watkins’ 31.4, but it’s the outcomes that stand out. Jackson won possession 2.7 times per 90, compared with Watkins’ 1.8. In the final third he regained the ball 0.9 times per 90; Watkins did so 0.6 times.

Among Opta’s striker sample, Jackson ranked in the 88th percentile for possession won in the attacking third. Watkins sat in the 43rd.

Both thrive on running in behind. Jackson averaged 13 such runs per 90, Watkins 12.7, with the England forward making slightly more runs that ended inside the area. But the profile is subtly different. Watkins brings more in the air – 1.2 aerial duels won per 90 to Jackson’s 0.7 – and carries the ball more directly towards goal.

Emery is not swapping like for like. He is trading some aerial presence and straight-line driving for a striker who presses harder, touches the ball more often, and creates more for others.

A calculated gamble

Jackson arrives five years younger than Watkins, with a data profile that suggests untapped ceiling as well as obvious flaws. He gets into prime scoring areas at an elite rate. He links play. He presses aggressively high up the pitch. And he did all of that last season while generating shots and high-quality chances at an impressive clip in limited minutes.

The doubts are real and earned. His finishing record at Chelsea lingers, and the step from impact substitute or rotation option to 40-game focal point is steep.

But Villa are not walking into the unknown. Emery has coached Jackson before and knows the traits he wants to sharpen. The club are effectively swapping a 30-year-old proven leader of the line for a 25-year-old whose underlying numbers hint there is still significant room to grow.

If Jackson settles quickly and Watkins completes his move to Al-Hilal, the Europa League winners will not just have a new face up front.

They will have a new idea of what their number nine should be.