Liverpool’s Defensive Struggles Offer Atlético an Opportunity

Anfield under the lights, Liverpool still finding their feet, and Diego Simeone rolling back into town with a side that knows exactly how to suffer. This feels familiar.

Andoni Iraola’s Liverpool have started the season with a wobble at the back. Four goals conceded in their first two Premier League games, both ending in draws, told their own story. The structure is still raw, the relationships still forming. Ronald Araújo has been shunted to right-back with Conor Bradley and Giovanni Leoni both sidelined, and the unit hasn’t fully settled.

That is exactly the sort of uncertainty Atlético live for.

Simeone’s team have already shown they can turn Anfield into their playground. They won 3-2 here in 2019/20 and, last season, clawed their way back from 2-0 down on this ground. The numbers suggest the market is underestimating them again: the odds give Atlético just a 46.5% implied chance of avoiding defeat, despite their knack for making these nights ugly and tight.

They have never actually won a league-phase game against English opposition, but they don’t need to rip up that statistic to justify the angle. A draw is enough for the “double chance” to land.

Bet 1: Draw or Atlético (Double Chance) @ 23/20 with Sky Bet

While Liverpool’s back line creaks, one part of Iraola’s plan is already humming. Alexander Isak looks like a different player.

Three goals in three Premier League games this season. Two of them came in a ruthless nine-minute burst at Ipswich last Friday, with Cody Gakpo laying on all three of his strikes so far this campaign. That is a dramatic jump from his debut year at Anfield, when he managed just four league goals in 22 appearances. The difference is clear: he looks fitter, quicker, and far more decisive in the box.

He will fancy this Atlético defence.

Simeone’s back line was ripped open in a 3-0 defeat at Athletic Bilbao, and they arrive on Merseyside still trying to rediscover their usual steel. The only real caution flag with Isak is his Champions League record: one goal in 13 appearances. Even so, the implied 47.6% chance of him scoring anytime feels on the low side given how he is striking the ball right now.

Bet 2: Alexander Isak anytime goalscorer @ 11/10 with Sky Bet

For all Liverpool’s attacking names, the real issue sits between the lines. Chance creation has stuttered badly.

Iraola’s side rank 19th in the Premier League for big chances created, with just four in three games. Brighton, by contrast, have carved out 15 over the same period. That is a staggering gap for a team boasting Florian Wirtz, Gakpo and Isak.

Atlético are built to choke that supply.

Pablo Barrios and Morten Hjulmand will patrol the pockets Wirtz loves to slip into, while Jan Oblak remains the calm, immovable presence behind them. Simeone will happily slow everything down, narrow the pitch, and turn this into a grind rather than a shootout. It suits his players, and it suits the game state.

At the other end, Atlético still carry a punch. They have scored seven times in their last four league matches, and the expected return of Julián Álvarez to the starting XI only sharpens their edge. Even so, the goal line looks high for the type of contest Simeone wants. With the under 2.5 goals price carrying an implied 42.2% probability, there is value in backing a cagey night.

Bet 3: Under 2.5 goals @ 11/8 with Sky Bet

Liverpool come into this as a side in transition rather than a finished product. Five points from three league games is respectable, but the path has been bumpy: two 2-2 draws followed by a steadier 2-0 win at Ipswich, where Isak’s brace at Portman Road eased some nerves.

The Swede’s resurgence is a bright spot after an injury-disrupted first season. Around him, though, Iraola is still juggling absences. Hugo Ekitike, Conor Bradley and Giovanni Leoni remain out, while Federico Chiesa and Wataru Endo are not registered for Champions League duty. The squad is strong, but not yet fully armed.

Atlético arrive bruised but far from broken. That 3-0 defeat at Athletic Bilbao stung, yet they still sit sixth in La Liga with seven points from four games. Simeone is expected to hand Julián Álvarez his first start of the season, a significant call in a game of this weight. Cristian Romero is also pushing for his first start since joining, with the club planning to keep Álvarez at least until January.

They will be without Alexander Sorloth, sidelined with a thigh problem, and Arnau Ortiz, who is suspended. Even so, this has the look of a classic Simeone away performance waiting to happen.

How they could line up

Liverpool expected XI: Alisson; Kerkez, Araújo, Jacquet, van Dijk; Szoboszlai, Mac Allister, Barcola; Wirtz, Gakpo; Isak

Atlético Madrid expected XI: Oblak; Llorente, Romero, Hancko, Grimaldo; Giuliano Simeone, Barrios, Hjulmand, Lookman; Baena, Álvarez

Prediction: another tight Anfield chapter

The last time these two met on Matchday 1 at Anfield, Liverpool edged a chaotic 3-2. This feels different. Iraola’s Liverpool are not yet fluent, and Simeone’s Atlético rarely allow the same script twice.

A low-scoring arm wrestle looks far more likely than another goal glut. The call is a 1-1 draw: Isak to extend his scoring streak for Liverpool, Álvarez to mark his first start of the season with the key goal for Atlético.

If that plays out, Liverpool will leave with more questions about their creativity and defensive balance, and Simeone will walk back down the Anfield tunnel knowing his team still know exactly how to spoil an English party.