Kairat Almaty vs Levski Sofia Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

This UEFA Champions League 3rd Qualifying Round second leg at Turkestan Arena sets up as a finely balanced tie between Kairat Almaty and Levski Sofia. The Bulgarian side holds a narrow 1-0 advantage from the first leg in Sofia on 4 August 2026, leaving everything to play for in Kazakhstan.

Kairat must overturn that deficit in front of their home crowd, where their Champions League statistics show them to be more dangerous in attack and solid at the back. Levski, meanwhile, arrive unbeaten in the competition so far this season, with three wins and two draws across five qualifiers, and will feel confident of finishing the job thanks to their greater attacking output and defensive resilience.

With Champions League progression and significant financial and sporting rewards on the line, this return leg promises to be tense, tactical and tight, with both sides aware that a single goal could swing the entire tie.

Kairat Almaty vs Levski Sofia Key Stats

• Kairat Almaty have won 3 of their 5 Champions League matches this season, scoring 6 and conceding just 3.
• The only previous meeting between these clubs ended Levski Sofia 1-0 Kairat Almaty in the first leg on 4 August 2026 in the UEFA Champions League 3rd Qualifying Round.
• Levski Sofia are unbeaten in 5 Champions League matches this season (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 9 goals and conceding 3, with 3 clean sheets.

Kairat Almaty vs Levski Sofia — Tale of the Tape

• Position: Not available vs Not available
• Points: Not available vs Not available
• Goals For: Not available vs Not available
• Goals Against: Not available vs Not available
• Clean Sheets: Kairat Almaty 2 (tournament statistics); Levski Sofia 3 (tournament statistics)

Traditional league-style standings are not available at this qualifying stage, but the tournament statistics provide a clear picture of how both sides have approached their Champions League campaign so far. Kairat have played 5 matches, winning 3 and losing 2, with 6 goals scored and 3 conceded. Their home record in this run is particularly strong: 2 wins from 2, with 4 goals scored and only 1 conceded.

Levski’s path has been even more consistent. Across 5 Champions League fixtures they remain unbeaten, with 3 wins and 2 draws. They have been especially dominant at home (3 wins, 6 goals scored, none conceded), while their away record (2 draws, 3 goals scored, 3 conceded) suggests they are more pragmatic on the road but still carry a significant attacking threat. Overall, Levski’s combination of higher scoring (1.8 goals per game) and three clean sheets underlines why they are slight favourites to advance.

Kairat Almaty vs Levski Sofia Key Matchups

Reinaldo vs Kairat Almaty Defence

With no Kairat players listed among the top scorers, the standout attacking figure in this tie is Levski Sofia forward Reinaldo. The Brazilian attacker has made 5 Champions League appearances this season, all from the start, and scored 2 goals. Although he has been substituted in each match and has accumulated just 75 minutes in total, his efficiency in front of goal is notable: 2 goals from limited minutes and without any recorded shots data indicates that when chances do fall to him, he makes them count.

Kairat’s defensive record in the competition — 3 goals conceded in 5 matches, with 2 clean sheets — suggests a well-organised back line that rarely collapses. They have allowed only 0.6 goals per game on average, and at home that figure drops to 0.5. Containing Reinaldo’s penalty-box movement and limiting service into him will be crucial if Kairat are to keep the clean sheet they probably need to turn the tie around.

Álex Centelles & A. Oko-Flex vs Kairat’s Flanks

Levski’s creativity and secondary goal threat comes from wide and advanced positions, notably through Álex Centelles and A. Oko-Flex. Centelles, a defender, has 1 assist from 5 Champions League appearances, often introduced from the bench (3 substitute appearances, 69 minutes in total). His ability to deliver from wide areas and contribute to attacking phases despite limited minutes makes him an important weapon, especially if Levski look to exploit space when Kairat push forward.

A. Oko-Flex, listed as a midfielder, has 1 goal in 5 appearances, with 4 starts and 68 minutes played. His scoring contribution from midfield adds another layer to Levski’s attack, particularly in transitions and late runs into the box. Against a Kairat side that has conceded a significant share of goals late in games, these wide and advanced midfield threats could be decisive in punishing any over-commitment from the hosts.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These sides have only just met for the first time in European competition, with the first leg providing the only reference point ahead of this return match.

• 4 August 2026: Levski Sofia 1-0 Kairat Almaty (UEFA Champions League)

Kairat Almaty vs Levski Sofia Prediction

Everything points towards a tight, low-scoring second leg. Kairat’s Champions League campaign has been built on defensive solidity, especially at home, where they have conceded just once in two matches. Their scoring average of 2.0 goals per home game suggests they are capable of turning the tie around, but they face a Levski side that has not lost in five Champions League outings and has kept three clean sheets.

The prediction model leans towards Levski avoiding defeat: the double-chance advice is “draw or Levski Sofia”, and the win probabilities are split at 10% for a Kairat win, 45% for a draw, and 45% for a Levski victory. That implies an 90 out of 100 chance that Levski at least draw on the night. With both teams averaging 0.6 goals conceded per game and the first leg finishing 1-0, another cagey contest is likely. Kairat will need to open up at some stage to chase the deficit, but Levski’s counter-attacking options and superior attacking numbers (1.8 goals per game vs Kairat’s 1.2) give them the edge.

Predicted Score: Kairat Almaty 1-1 Levski Sofia

Kairat Almaty Recent Form

Kairat’s recent Champions League form is mixed but competitive. Across their last 5 matches in the competition they have 3 wins and 2 defeats, with no draws. The pattern “WWLWL” reflects spells of momentum interrupted by narrow setbacks, such as the 1-0 away loss in Sofia. They have been strong at home with two wins from two, scoring freely while maintaining a tight defence, but their away defeats underline why they now face a deficit coming into this second leg.

Levski Sofia Recent Form

Levski arrive in excellent Champions League form. Their sequence “DWWDW” over 5 matches shows an unbeaten run featuring three wins and two draws. They have been perfect at home, winning all three fixtures without conceding, while drawing both away games. This balance of solidity and attacking threat makes them well equipped to manage a tricky away second leg while protecting a slim aggregate lead.

Kairat Almaty Possible Starting Lineup

GK: T. Anarbekov; Defenders: L. Kurgin, Lucas Áfrico, Luís Mata, A. Martynovich; Midfielders: A. Sadybekov, D. Kasabulat, J. Oksanen, G. Mendonsa, O. Baybek; Forwards: Edmilson, Marc Gual, Jorginho.

Kairat’s squad list suggests a blend of experienced defenders like Lucas Áfrico, Luís Mata and A. Martynovich, supported by a young, energetic midfield featuring players such as A. Sadybekov, D. Kasabulat and J. Oksanen. In attack, options like Edmilson, Marc Gual and Jorginho provide different profiles — from physical presence to mobility and technical quality. Their tournament statistics show Kairat often lining up in a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3, formations that fit this personnel and allow them to press high at home while keeping a solid double pivot in front of the back four.

Levski Sofia Possible Starting Lineup

GK: M. Lukov; Defenders: Maicon, N. Serafimov, Aldair, Álex Centelles; Midfielders: Serginho, M. Soula, E. El Moubarik, A. Oko-Flex; Forwards: Reinaldo, J. Perea.

Levski’s squad and tournament data point towards a 4-3-3 as their primary shape, with 4-4-2 as an alternative. At the back, the defensive core of Maicon, N. Serafimov and Aldair has underpinned three clean sheets, while Álex Centelles adds width and crossing ability from full-back. In midfield, players like Serginho, M. Soula and E. El Moubarik can control tempo and protect the back line, with A. Oko-Flex offering an advanced threat. Up front, Reinaldo and J. Perea give Levski pace and finishing power on the break, ideal for an away leg where counter-attacks could decide the tie.

Kairat Almaty Team News

No significant absences reported.

Levski Sofia Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Kairat Almaty:

• None reported.

Levski Sofia:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Kairat Almaty vs Levski Sofia

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Back “Draw or Levski Sofia” on the double-chance market. The prediction model gives Kairat only a 10% chance of winning, with 45% for a draw and 45% for a Levski victory, reflecting Levski’s unbeaten run (DWWDW) and superior attacking numbers. In the 1X2 market, home odds range roughly from 2.40 to 2.60 (implied probability about 38.5%–41.7%), while away odds sit between 2.62 and 2.88 (about 34.7%–38.2%), underlining how tight the market is but still favouring Levski not to lose over 90 minutes.
• Goals Tip: Under 2.5 total goals. Both sides concede just 0.6 goals per game on average in this Champions League campaign, and the first leg finished 1-0. Kairat’s matches have seen them score 6 and concede 3 in 5 games, while Levski have scored 9 and conceded 3 in the same span — respectable numbers but not indicative of wild shootouts. With the tie finely poised and the stakes high, another controlled, low-scoring encounter is more likely than an open game.
• Value Tip: Back Reinaldo to score anytime if a goalscorer market is available. He has 2 goals from 5 Champions League appearances for Levski despite limited minutes, marking him as their most efficient finisher in this campaign. Combined with Kairat needing to chase the game at some stage, the space that opens up should suit Reinaldo’s penalty-area instincts and give him opportunities on the counter.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.