HNK Hajduk Split vs Pafos Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

HNK Hajduk Split welcome Pafos to Stadion Poljud in Split for a UEFA Europa League 2nd Qualifying Round first-leg tie on 23 July 2026. With a passionate home crowd behind them and early competitive minutes already in their legs, Hajduk will look to seize the initiative before the return leg.

For Hajduk, this qualifier is a crucial gateway to the Europa League proper and a chance to build on a mixed but promising start in continental action. They have already played two Europa League fixtures this season, showing both attacking threat and defensive vulnerability. Pafos, by contrast, are stepping into their first Europa League match of the campaign, entering this tie as something of an unknown quantity at this level.

From a betting perspective, this clash between Hajduk Split and Pafos in the Europa League qualifying rounds offers several angles: the home side’s early tournament form, Pafos’ clean statistical slate, and a very balanced market where odds and prediction percentages are almost perfectly split between home, draw and away outcomes.

HNK Hajduk Split vs Pafos Key Stats

• HNK Hajduk Split have played 2 Europa League matches this season, winning 1 and losing 1, with a goals record of 3 scored and 2 conceded.
• There are no previous head-to-head meetings recorded between HNK Hajduk Split and Pafos in the available data.
• In Europa League statistics so far, Hajduk have kept 1 clean sheet in 2 matches, while Pafos are yet to play a match in this campaign.

HNK Hajduk Split vs Pafos — Tale of the Tape

• Position: Not available vs Not available
• Points: Not available vs Not available
• Goals For: Not available vs Not available
• Goals Against: Not available vs Not available
• Clean Sheets: HNK Hajduk Split 1 (tournament statistics) vs Pafos 0 (tournament statistics)

Traditional league-style standings are not available for either side in the current Europa League phase, so the best guide comes from their tournament statistics. Hajduk have already played twice, splitting a win and a loss, and showing they can both dominate at home (a biggest home win of 2-0) and be exposed away (a 2-1 away defeat).

Pafos enter this tie without any Europa League fixtures played this season, meaning their position, points, and goal figures are all at zero. That lack of competitive data makes them difficult to profile, but it also means they arrive without any negative baggage. Hajduk’s slight edge in experience and rhythm in this campaign, plus one clean sheet from two games, gives the Croatian side a marginal statistical advantage heading into the first leg.

HNK Hajduk Split vs Pafos Key Matchups

Marko Livaja vs David Luiz

Without specific goal or assist tallies in the data, this matchup is more about roles and profiles than raw numbers. Marko Livaja, listed as an attacker and wearing number 10 for Hajduk, is the natural focal point of the home side’s forward line. Hajduk have scored 3 goals in 2 Europa League games, averaging 1.5 per match, and have failed to score in neither outing. That suggests their attacking structure, likely built around Livaja, is functioning well.

On the other side, veteran defender David Luiz anchors the Pafos back line. Pafos’ Europa League defensive record is currently a blank slate, but Luiz’s presence points to an experienced unit designed to cope with pressure in hostile environments like Stadion Poljud. The duel between Livaja’s movement and physicality and Luiz’s positioning and leadership could be decisive in determining whether Hajduk can turn pressure into goals.

Filip Krovinović vs Domingos Quina

In midfield, Hajduk’s Filip Krovinović (number 23) is one of the key creative figures. Hajduk’s Europa League numbers show a balanced attacking spread, with goals arriving in multiple time windows (16–30, 31–45, 46–60, and 76–90 minutes), which often points to a midfield capable of sustaining pressure and creating chances throughout the match.

For Pafos, Domingos Quina (number 8) is a central midfield presence who will be vital in controlling tempo and helping his side transition from defence to attack. With Pafos yet to register a single goal for or against in the competition, Quina’s influence in their first outing will be crucial in determining whether they can compete in possession or are forced into a reactive, counter-attacking role.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

There are no recorded recent meetings between HNK Hajduk Split and Pafos in the available data, so this Europa League qualifier will serve as a fresh tactical and psychological contest between the clubs.

HNK Hajduk Split vs Pafos Prediction

Stats suggest a very finely balanced tie. The prediction model assigns 33% to a Hajduk win, 33% to a draw and 33% to a Pafos win, reflecting a high degree of uncertainty. However, context tilts slightly towards the hosts: Hajduk have already played 2 Europa League games, scoring 3 and conceding 2, with one clean sheet. They have shown they can control matches at home (2-0 biggest home win) and are comfortable in a 4-2-3-1 structure, used in both matches.

Pafos, by contrast, come in with no Europa League matches played this season. Their last-five metrics show 0% across form, attack and defence, purely because of a lack of data rather than poor performances. That makes them a wildcard, but also means they may need time to adapt to the intensity and atmosphere of a European away leg in Split.

Given Hajduk’s demonstrated ability to score in every match so far and Pafos’ unknown attacking threat, the match flow is likely to see Hajduk on the front foot, probing against a Pafos side that will initially prioritise defensive organisation. The absence of a clear favourite in the probabilities and the balanced pre-match odds point towards a tight contest, where a single goal either way could decide it.

Predicted Score: HNK Hajduk Split 1-1 Pafos

HNK Hajduk Split Recent Form

Hajduk’s Europa League form line reads one win and one defeat. They have been efficient in front of goal, averaging 1.5 goals per match and never failing to score. Defensively, they have conceded 2 goals in 2 games (1.0 per match) but did manage a clean sheet in their home fixture. Their last-five indicators show 50 in overall form, with attacking output at 27 and defensive index at 82, underlining a relatively solid back line despite the away loss.

Pafos Recent Form

Pafos have no Europa League matches played this season, so their recent form in this competition is effectively a blank page. Their last-five metrics in the tournament context are all at 0, which reflects a lack of data rather than poor results. How quickly they can translate domestic form and squad quality into competitive European performances will be a key question in this tie.

HNK Hajduk Split Possible Starting Lineup

Potential key players for Hajduk Split (grouped by position):
Goalkeepers: D. Fesyuk, I. Ivušić, I. Pocrnjić, T. Silić, D. Stipica;
Defenders: M. Acapandié, L. Banovic, M. Cupic, L. Hodak, Š. Hrgović, F. Karačić, D. Marešić, D. Melnjak, R. Raci, Z. Šarlija, M. Skelin, A. Van Hoorenbeeck, Roko Gabrić;
Midfielders: E. Brruti, Hugo Guillamón, A. Guram, F. Krovinović, I. Kutia, A. Pajaziti, R. Pukštas, N. Sigur, N. Skoko, A. Sutalo, M. Žaper, Alberto del Moral, R. Brajković, A. Sanyang, Dali;
Forwards: M. Livaja, M. Šego, P. Ugwuodo.

Hajduk have consistently used a 4-2-3-1 in their two Europa League matches, suggesting a stable tactical framework. With several experienced defenders like D. Melnjak and Z. Šarlija, plus creative midfielders such as F. Krovinović and Alberto del Moral, they have the tools to control possession and supply their main striker, likely M. Livaja. The depth in goal and midfield also gives flexibility to adjust in-game without sacrificing structure.

Pafos Possible Starting Lineup

Potential key players for Pafos (grouped by position):
Goalkeepers: J. Gorter, N. Kyriakidis, P. Petrou;
Defenders: João Correia, David Luiz, David Goldar, A. Guessand, K. Ioannou, N. Ioannou, D. Luckassen, S. Mmaee, G. Skafi;
Midfielders: Alexandre Miguel Soares Carvalho Brito, Pedro Caldieraro, V. Dragomir, Guga, Pêpê Rodrigues, Domingos Quina, K. Sema, I. Šunjić;
Forwards: Anderson Silva, M. Bassouamina, Biel, Bruno Felipe, Pedro Caldieraro, A. Christoforou, Jajá, G. Michael.

Pafos’ squad blends experienced names like David Luiz, N. Ioannou, Guga and K. Sema with younger talents. Without recorded lineups in this Europa League campaign, their exact formation is uncertain, but the balance of defenders and midfielders suggests they can set up either in a back four or a more conservative shape with added protection in front of the defence. Expect them to rely on the experience of their spine to withstand early Hajduk pressure and look to pace and individual quality in attack through players such as Anderson Silva, Biel or Jajá on the break.

HNK Hajduk Split Team News

No significant absences reported.

Pafos Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

HNK Hajduk Split:

• None reported.

Pafos:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: HNK Hajduk Split vs Pafos

Exactly 3 distinct betting ideas from different markets, based on current stats and odds:

• Result Tip: Back HNK Hajduk Split Draw No Bet. The prediction percentages are perfectly split at 33% each, but Hajduk have the edge in tournament experience and home advantage, with 1 win, 1 loss and 1 clean sheet from 2 Europa League matches. Market odds for the home win range from 2.40 to 2.42 (implied probability roughly 41.3%–41.7%), slightly shorter than the away price of 2.93–2.95 (about 33.9%–34.1%), confirming a modest lean towards Hajduk. Taking a safety net with Draw No Bet aligns with the balanced nature of the fixture.
• Goals Tip: Under 3.5 total goals. Hajduk’s Europa League matches have produced 3 and 2 goals respectively, with their goals for/against averages at 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded per game. Pafos have no recorded Europa League goals yet, making an explosive high-scoring game less likely on paper. With Hajduk showing one clean sheet and Pafos expected to be cautious away from home, a controlled, medium-scoring contest is probable. Look for an Under 3.5 goals price in the main goals market (check the latest odds with your bookmaker).
• Value Tip: Both Teams to Score – Yes. Despite the case for a relatively tight scoreline, Hajduk have scored in every Europa League match so far and have conceded in 1 of 2 games. Their goals are spread across different phases of matches, suggesting they can create chances throughout. Pafos’ attacking quality on paper – with forwards like Anderson Silva, Biel, Bruno Felipe and Jajá – hints at a threat even if the data is not yet there. With the 1X2 market very balanced (home 2.40–2.42, draw 3.10–3.15, away 2.93–2.95), BTTS could offer a more generous price relative to the real risk profile. Again, consult current odds for the exact value.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.