CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv: UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round Preview

On 13 August 2026, the floodlights of National Stadium Vasil Levski in Sofia will frame a tense second act in the UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round. CSKA Sofia return home with a 3-0 advantage from Batumi, knowing that one more solid performance can push them to the brink of the group stage. Maccabi Tel Aviv arrive wounded but not yet beaten, needing something close to perfection to overturn the deficit and keep their European campaign alive.

Season Context

With no domestic standings data available, this tie is being defined almost entirely by what the two sides have shown so far in Europe. CSKA Sofia have been close to flawless in UEFA Europa League action: across 5 matches they have 4 wins and 1 draw, scoring 9 goals and conceding only 3. That record underpins their growing belief that a return to the main stage of European football is within reach.

Maccabi Tel Aviv’s European story in 2026 is more volatile but still dangerous. In 3 UEFA Europa League fixtures they have won 2 and lost 1, with 6 goals scored and 3 conceded. The heavy 0-3 defeat in the first leg has shifted the narrative, but their earlier 5-0 away win in this campaign is a reminder that they have the firepower to turn a tie on its head if they find rhythm.

Form & Momentum

CSKA Sofia carry the swagger of a side in rhythm, reflected in a recent run of WWDWW in UEFA Europa League play. That sequence combines resilience and cutting edge: 9 goals scored and just 3 conceded across 5 matches point to a balanced team capable of both controlling games and punishing mistakes. Averaging 1.8 goals per match while allowing only 0.6, they have been both efficient in attack and disciplined in defence.

Maccabi Tel Aviv’s form line of WWL tells a different, more uneven story. The two wins underline their capacity to dominate – especially that 0-5 away victory earlier in the qualifiers (6 goals scored, 3 conceded across 3 games) – but the collapse to 0-3 against CSKA Sofia raises questions about their defensive stability under pressure. An average of 2 goals scored per European match shows they can create, yet conceding 1 goal per game, including three in one night, suggests vulnerability when the tempo rises.

Head-to-Head Patterns

The head-to-head history between these sides in 2026 is short but emphatic. On 6 August 2026, at Batumi Arena, CSKA Sofia stunned Maccabi Tel Aviv with a 0-3 away victory in the UEFA Europa League, season 2026 (0-3, UEFA Europa League, season 2026, August 2026). That match, played on neutral soil, set the tone for this tie: CSKA were clinical in front of goal and ruthless in transition, while Maccabi struggled to cope with their intensity.

Beyond that single competitive meeting in the data, the broader comparison model leans heavily towards CSKA Sofia in direct clashes, with the head-to-head index reading 100 for CSKA Sofia and 0 for Maccabi Tel Aviv. Combined with a goals index of 100 to 0, the early pattern is of a tie where the Bulgarian side have so far dictated the terms.

Tactical Preview

CSKA Sofia’s European campaign has been built on flexibility and balance. Their use of multiple systems – including 4-3-1-2, 3-5-2, 4-4-2, 4-1-4-1 and 4-3-3 – hints at a coach willing to tailor the approach to the opponent while keeping a solid core. The numbers back up a side that can adapt: 4 wins and 1 draw from 5 fixtures, with 9 goals scored and only 3 conceded, show they can press higher in a back four or sit compact in a back three without losing control. Clean sheets in 3 of those 5 matches underline a defensive structure that rarely breaks, even when the shape changes.

In possession, CSKA Sofia have shown a knack for spreading their goals across different phases of the game, and their biggest wins – 3-2 at home and 0-3 away in this European run – suggest they are comfortable in both open, high-scoring contests and more controlled, counter-attacking scenarios. With a deep squad featuring experienced midfielders like S. Sensi and dynamic wide options such as M. Brahimi and Léo Pereira, they can switch between direct play into attackers like I. Pittas and more patient build-up through the lines.

Maccabi Tel Aviv, by contrast, have leaned on three main systems: 3-5-2, 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. That blend points to a team that can either crowd midfield to control the ball or stretch the pitch with wingers. Their 6 goals in 3 European games, including a 0-5 away win, show how explosive they can be when the attacking structure clicks. Players such as Dor Peretz and D. Glazer in midfield give them the platform to push full-backs like S. Yehezkel and R. Revivo high, while forwards like E. Sokler and Y. Malede provide movement in behind.

The problem for Maccabi lies in defensive consistency. Conceding 3 of their 3 total goals against at home in just one match (the 0-3 loss to CSKA Sofia) suggests that when their press is bypassed, the back line can be exposed. Their two clean sheets show they can shut games down, but the tie in Sofia will demand a delicate balance: they must chase goals without leaving the same spaces that CSKA exploited in Batumi.

Statistical Snapshot

• Competition: UEFA Europa League, season 2026 — 13 August 2026.
• Venue: National Stadium Vasil Levski, Sofia.
• Prediction: Win or draw — Double chance : CSKA Sofia or draw.
• Win Probabilities: Home 45% / Draw 45% / Away 10%.
• Model: CSKA Sofia 59.3 — Maccabi Tel Aviv 40.7.

Betting Verdict

The prediction models tilt clearly towards CSKA Sofia avoiding defeat, with a double-chance recommendation (CSKA Sofia or draw) supported by a 45% home win probability, 45% draw probability and only 10% for a Maccabi Tel Aviv victory. The comparison model’s overall index of 59.3 for CSKA Sofia against 40.7 for Maccabi Tel Aviv reflects their superior European form (4 wins and 1 draw in 5 matches, 9 goals for and 3 against) and the authoritative 0-3 win in the first leg. Bookmaker odds for a home win range roughly from 1.98 to 2.14, implying an approximate probability band around the high 40s to low 50s percent, which aligns with the analytical edge given to CSKA. Given CSKA’s defensive solidity and the cushion from Batumi, backing the hosts on the double chance, or even cautiously on the outright home win, looks justified, while any bet on a Maccabi comeback requires accepting a long-odds, low-probability scenario.