Celje vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

This UEFA Champions League 3rd Qualifying Round second leg in Celje sets up a fascinating clash between Celje and Ararat-Armenia. The first leg in Yerevan finished 2-1 to Ararat-Armenia, leaving the tie finely poised but with the Armenian champions holding a narrow advantage heading into Slovenia.

Played in Celje, with no confirmed stadium name listed, this match will decide who moves one step closer to the lucrative Champions League group stages. Celje must overturn a one-goal deficit at home, while Ararat-Armenia know that even a draw will be enough to see them through. With both sides showing attacking intent in qualifying so far, this looks like a high-stakes, open second leg that should attract plenty of interest from Champions League prediction and betting-focused fans.

Celje vs Ararat-Armenia Key Stats

• Celje have scored 7 and conceded 7 across 3 Champions League qualifiers this season, averaging 2.3 goals scored and 2.3 conceded per match.
• Ararat-Armenia have won both previous European meetings with Celje: 2-1 on 4 August 2026 in the Champions League and 1-0 after extra time on 24 September 2020 in the Europa League.
• Ararat-Armenia’s Champions League campaign so far shows 9 goals scored and 6 conceded in 5 matches, with 2 clean sheets and an average of 1.8 goals scored per game.

Celje vs Ararat-Armenia — Tale of the Tape

• Position: Not available vs Not available
• Points: Not available vs Not available
• Goals For: 7 (Celje, 3 matches) vs 9 (Ararat-Armenia, 5 matches)
• Goals Against: 7 (Celje) vs 6 (Ararat-Armenia)
• Clean Sheets: Celje 0; Ararat-Armenia 2 (Champions League statistics)

Standings data for the qualifying rounds is not provided, but the available tournament statistics already tell a clear story. Celje’s matches have been wide open: 7 scored and 7 conceded in just 3 fixtures, with no clean sheets and both teams scoring in every game. Their home outing produced a 3-2 win, underlining both their attacking threat and defensive vulnerability.

Ararat-Armenia, by contrast, have been more balanced over a larger sample of 5 matches. They have 3 wins and 2 defeats, all without a draw, and have kept 2 clean sheets at home. Their goals-against average is a solid 1.2 per game, dragged up by two away defeats where they conceded 5 of their 6 goals. That pattern suggests a side strong in Yerevan but more fragile on the road — a key factor with a 2-1 lead to protect away from home.

Celje vs Ararat-Armenia Key Matchups

Celje attack unit vs Sandro Lima

Celje’s scoring has been spread across the team in qualifying, with 7 goals in 3 games and no individual player listed among the competition’s top scorers. Their threat is collective rather than built around a single star, supported by flexible formations (4-4-2, 4-3-3, 3-4-3 all used once each in the Champions League campaign).

Ararat-Armenia, meanwhile, have a clear focal point in attack: Sandro Lima. The 35-year-old striker has made 5 Champions League appearances this season, all from the start, contributing 1 goal. His minutes total is listed at 79, indicating he has often been substituted early or there is a recording quirk, but he remains the only Ararat-Armenia player on the top scorers list. Even with modest raw numbers, his presence as a recognised finisher could be crucial in a tie where an away goal would put Celje under huge pressure.

Zidane Banjaqui vs Celje midfield

Zidane Banjaqui has emerged as a key creative and disruptive figure for Ararat-Armenia. In 5 Champions League appearances (2 starts), he has provided 1 assist and picked up 2 yellow cards, underlining both his attacking contribution and combative edge. Across just 18 recorded minutes, he has made his mark in high-impact cameos, often entering from the bench (3 substitute appearances) and influencing games late on.

Celje’s midfield, which has helped generate 2.3 goals per game and ensured the team have not failed to score in any qualifier, must track Banjaqui’s runs between the lines and be wary of his late surges. His disciplinary record also hints at a potential flashpoint area in central zones, especially if Celje push numbers forward and transitions become more chaotic in the second half.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These sides are becoming familiar foes in European qualifying, with Ararat-Armenia holding the psychological edge from their previous encounters.

• 4 August 2026: Ararat-Armenia 2-1 Celje (UEFA Champions League, 3rd Qualifying Round)
• 24 September 2020: Ararat-Armenia 1-0 Celje (after extra time) (UEFA Europa League, 3rd Qualifying Round)

Celje vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction

Stats suggest a clash of styles: Celje’s chaotic, high-scoring qualifiers versus Ararat-Armenia’s more controlled but occasionally fragile away form. Celje have averaged 2.3 goals scored and conceded per match, with all three of their Champions League qualifiers going over 1.5 goals and two of them over 2.5. Ararat-Armenia’s matches have been slightly tighter, with 4 of 5 going over 1.5 goals but none clearing the 2.5 line, despite their 9 goals scored.

The prediction model gives Celje just a 10% chance of winning in regulation time, with the draw and Ararat-Armenia each rated at 45%. That aligns with the first-leg pattern and H2H record, where Ararat-Armenia have won both previous meetings. However, the betting markets strongly disagree, installing Celje as clear favourites on the night (home odds clustered around 1.36–1.48, implying roughly 67.6–73.5% win probability), largely due to home advantage and the need to chase the tie.

Given Celje’s must-win situation, expect them to start on the front foot, leaving spaces for Ararat-Armenia’s forwards and wide players to exploit on the counter. With both teams having scored in the first leg and Celje yet to keep a clean sheet in qualifying, another game where both find the net looks likely. Over 1.5 goals also appears a very strong angle, in line with the advice that combines a double chance on Ararat-Armenia with a goals line.

Predicted Score: Celje 1-1 Ararat-Armenia
A draw would be enough to send Ararat-Armenia through, and a 1-1 scoreline fits both the 45% draw probability and the pattern of a tight but open second leg.

Celje Recent Form

Celje’s recent Champions League form reads as mixed but consistently entertaining. Across 3 qualifiers, they have 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat. Their form string is recorded as DWL, reflecting an unbeaten start before the narrow 2-1 loss away to Ararat-Armenia in the first leg.

They have scored in every match, with 7 goals in total and an attacking spread across all time windows from 16–105 minutes. Defensively, they have conceded in every game, with goals allowed in each major time band, including early (0–15) and late (76–90 and beyond). That volatility makes them dangerous but vulnerable heading into this decisive second leg.

Ararat-Armenia Recent Form

Ararat-Armenia’s Champions League form line of WLWLW underlines their all-or-nothing profile: 3 wins and 2 defeats, no draws. All 3 victories have come at home, including the 2-1 success over Celje, while both losses were away, with 5 of their 6 goals conceded on the road.

They have yet to fail to score in qualifying and have shown a strong second-half scoring pattern, with a significant share of goals coming between 46–90 minutes. Their two home clean sheets show defensive capability, but the away numbers (2.5 goals conceded per away match) suggest Celje will create chances in Slovenia.

Celje Possible Starting Lineup

Likely key players (by position):
Goalkeepers: Ž. Frelih, L. Kolar, Žan-Luk Leban, S. Sluga
Defenders: Ł. Bejger, David Castro, A. Dionkou, L. Koútris, P. Širvys, A. Tutyškinas, G. Vodeb, N. Vukasović, D. Vukliševič, I. Ćalušić
Midfielders: M. Zabukovnik, Papa Mustapha Daniel, D. Hrka, F. Jevšenak, M. Kvesić, T. Letonja, R. Požeg, J. Pranjić, S. Sešlar, M. Avdyli, Y. Dukuly, M. Ivanšek, V. Tusha, B. Verbič
Forwards: A. Kotnik, A. Kucys, M. Poplatnik, D. Suhovrsnik

Celje have rotated between 4-4-2, 4-3-3 and 3-4-3 in their three Champions League fixtures, suggesting tactical flexibility. With no clean sheets and a need to chase the tie, a more attacking setup with wide forwards such as A. Kotnik and M. Poplatnik supported by creative midfielders like B. Verbič and S. Sešlar looks probable. The defensive unit will need to be more compact than in previous qualifiers, especially against Ararat-Armenia’s counter-attacking threats.

Ararat-Armenia Possible Starting Lineup

Likely key players (by position):
Goalkeepers: S. Badalyan, Joao Bravim, A. Nersesyan
Defenders: E. Grigoryan, K. Hovhannisyan, Junior Julio, Luís Felipe, A. Malis, Hugo Oliveira, Bruno Pereira, Bruno Wilson
Midfielders: A. Tera, A. Ambartsumyan, M. Ayvazyan, J. Balanta, Zidane Banjaqui, M. Carlier, M. Hovhannisyan, K. Muradyan, E. Poghosyan, Franҫa, A. Serobyan, Z. Shaghoyan
Forwards: P. Ayongo, A. Eloyan, A. Ndour, Sandro Lima

Ararat-Armenia have predominantly used a 4-3-3 in qualifying (4 times) with one outing in 3-4-3, indicating a preference for width and a solid midfield trio. Expect a compact back four featuring defenders like Hugo Oliveira and Bruno Wilson, screened by experienced midfielders such as J. Balanta and K. Muradyan. In attack, Sandro Lima should lead the line, supported by wide forwards like P. Ayongo or A. Ndour, with creative options such as Zidane Banjaqui and Z. Shaghoyan able to change the game from midfield.

Celje Team News

No significant absences reported.

Ararat-Armenia Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Celje:

• None reported.

Ararat-Armenia:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Celje vs Ararat-Armenia

Here are three data-backed betting angles for this Champions League qualifier:

• Result Tip: Back Celje to win in 90 minutes.
  The prediction probabilities lean towards a draw or Ararat-Armenia (10% home, 45% draw, 45% away), but the market is firmly behind Celje. Home odds range from 1.36 to 1.48 across major bookmakers, implying roughly a 67.6–73.5% chance of a Celje win. With Ararat-Armenia losing both away qualifiers so far and conceding 5 goals in those two games, the price on the home side reflects their strong chance of at least winning the night, even if qualification remains in the balance.
• Goals Tip: Over 1.5 total goals.
  Celje’s 3 Champions League qualifiers have all featured at least 2 goals, with a 2.3 goals-for and 2.3 goals-against average. Ararat-Armenia’s 5 matches have also seen over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 outings. The match prediction advice explicitly points to “+1.5 goals” as part of the recommended combo, reinforcing this angle. While exact odds for the goals market are not provided, the statistical profile makes over 1.5 goals a strong candidate for multiples or as part of a builder.
• Value Tip: Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – Yes.
  Celje have scored in every qualifier and have yet to keep a clean sheet. Ararat-Armenia have also scored in all 5 of their Champions League matches and found the net twice in the first leg. Their away defence has been suspect (5 goals conceded in 2 away games), suggesting Celje will get chances, but Ararat-Armenia’s counter-attacking threat through players like Sandro Lima and late-impact midfielders such as Zidane Banjaqui makes an away goal likely. With match-winner odds for Ararat-Armenia ranging from 6.00 to 7.50, BTTS could offer more attractive value than simply backing the visitors or the draw.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.