Anderlecht vs PAOK Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Anderlecht welcome PAOK to Lotto Park in Anderlecht on 13 August 2026 for the second leg of their UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round tie. The Belgians hold a slender advantage after a 1-0 away win in Thessaloniki on 6 August, and now have the chance to finish the job in front of their own fans.

With a place in the Europa League play-off round at stake, the margins are thin. Anderlecht are unbeaten in the competition so far with a solid mix of attacking output and defensive control, while PAOK have already shown they can score freely but must now overturn a deficit away from home. This clash sets up as a classic qualification decider, with both sides aware that one mistake could swing the tie.

Anderlecht vs PAOK Key Stats

• Across 3 Europa League matches this season, Anderlecht are unbeaten with 2 wins and 1 draw, scoring 5 and conceding just 2.
• The only previous meeting between these sides in this tie ended PAOK 0-1 Anderlecht on 6 August 2026 at Toumba Stadium.
• In Europa League 2026 statistics, both teams have scored 5 goals in 3 matches (1.7 per game), but Anderlecht concede 0.7 per match compared to PAOK’s 1.0.

Anderlecht vs PAOK — Tale of the Tape

• Position: Not available vs Not available
• Points: Not available vs Not available
• Goals For: Not available vs Not available
• Goals Against: Not available vs Not available
• Clean Sheets: Anderlecht 1 (Europa League 2026 statistics); PAOK 1 (Europa League 2026 statistics)

There is no formal group standings table yet for this qualifying round, but the underlying Europa League statistics paint a clear picture of two well-matched sides. Anderlecht’s record of 2 wins and 1 draw from 3 matches, with 5 goals scored and only 2 conceded, underlines a balanced team that is hard to beat.

PAOK’s numbers are similar: 2 wins and 1 defeat, 5 goals scored and 3 conceded. Their biggest away result so far is a 3-2 victory, showing they are capable of opening up games on their travels, but the 0-1 home loss to Anderlecht in the first leg highlights some defensive vulnerability when chasing a result. Both teams have one clean sheet in the competition, suggesting that while they can shut games down, they are not impenetrable.

Anderlecht vs PAOK Key Matchups

Anderlecht structure vs PAOK structure

There is no individual goals or assists data available for either side, so the key battle is more about tactical structure than star names. Anderlecht have alternated between a 4-4-2 (used in 2 matches) and a 4-3-3 (1 match) in Europa League action, reflecting a flexible approach: they can either match PAOK in midfield numbers or commit extra width and attacking presence.

PAOK, by contrast, have been consistent with a 4-2-3-1 across all 3 Europa League matches. That system relies heavily on the double pivot to protect the back four and on the attacking midfield line to create overloads between the lines. Against an Anderlecht side that has not failed to score yet in the competition, the discipline of PAOK’s two holding midfielders will be crucial.

Defensive resilience vs attacking risk

Anderlecht’s defensive record – just 2 goals conceded in 3 matches at an average of 0.7 per game – suggests a side that manages game states well. They have yet to lose, and their only clean sheet came away from home, underlining their ability to defend under pressure. Even when they concede, the distribution shows a tendency to allow goals early or late in halves, moments when concentration can dip.

PAOK’s attack averages the same 1.7 goals per game as Anderlecht, but they concede more (1.0 per match) and have already been shut out once – in that first leg 0-1 defeat. Their biggest win, 2-0 at home, shows they can keep things tight when in control, but chasing the tie in Belgium may force them into a more open game, playing into Anderlecht’s hands on transitions.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These sides have only met once in recent Europa League history, in the first leg of this qualifying tie. That match offers the clearest template for what to expect in the return fixture.

• 06 August 2026: PAOK 0-1 Anderlecht (UEFA Europa League)

Anderlecht vs PAOK Prediction

Stats suggest a very finely balanced second leg. The prediction model gives Anderlecht a 45% chance of winning in 90 minutes, the draw also at 45%, and PAOK just 10% for an away victory. That aligns with the first-leg pattern: Anderlecht are compact, efficient and hard to break down, while PAOK must now take more risks.

Anderlecht’s Europa League form line of 2 wins and 1 draw, combined with only 0.7 goals conceded per match and no defeats, points to a side well-equipped to manage a narrow advantage. PAOK’s “WWL” sequence indicates they can string wins together, but the defeat arriving at home in this tie is a psychological blow. Expect Anderlecht to be cautious, controlling tempo and protecting their lead, while PAOK gradually commit more bodies forward as the clock ticks.

Predicted Score: Anderlecht 1-1 PAOK

Anderlecht Recent Form

In Europa League 2026, Anderlecht’s recent form reads as unbeaten over 3 matches, with 2 wins and 1 draw. They have scored 5 goals (1.7 per game) and conceded only 2 (0.7 per game), with one clean sheet and no matches without scoring. Their biggest win so far is 3-1 at home, underlining their ability to find multiple goals when needed.

PAOK Recent Form

PAOK’s Europa League 2026 form shows 2 wins and 1 defeat across 3 fixtures. They have also scored 5 goals (1.7 per match) but conceded 3 (1.0 per game). Their biggest results include a 2-0 home win and a 3-2 away win, showing both defensive solidity in control and high-scoring away performances. However, the most recent outing was the 0-1 home loss to Anderlecht, their only failure to score in the competition.

Anderlecht Possible Starting Lineup

With no confirmed lineups for this specific fixture, the focus is on key squad options. Anderlecht’s goalkeeping options include C. Coosemans, J. Heekeren and M. Seghers. In defence, L. Augustinsson, G. Biancone, L. Hey, Z. Keita, M. N’Diaye, L. Pétrot, K. Sardella and B. Vroninks offer a deep pool of full-backs and centre-backs.

Midfield options feature L. Ambros, I. Camara, K. Nga, N. Saliba, M. Stroeykens, O. Antman, T. Degreef, C. Huerta and Jayden Onia Seke, while the attacking line can be built around N. Cobiella, A. Bertaccini, M. Cvetkovic, E. Dao and D. Sikan. Previous Europa League statistics show Anderlecht using 4-4-2 in two matches and 4-3-3 once, so a flexible shape is likely, with the full-backs and wide midfielders critical in both protecting the lead and offering counter-attacking outlets.

PAOK Possible Starting Lineup

PAOK have strong depth across the pitch. In goal, D. Monastirlis, Vasileios Nikolakoulis, J. Pavlenka and A. Tsiftsis provide several options. Defensively, A. Baba, D. Bataoulas, Elustondo, P. Hatzidiakos, J. Gómez, J. Kenny, G. Kosidis, D. Kottas, L. Lyratzis, G. Michailidis, G. Sideras, G. Taylor and K. Thymianis can fill full-back and centre-back roles.

The midfield is stacked with M. Camara, K. Despodov, G. Konstantelias, S. Meïté, D. Pelkas, B. Santamaría, Taison, D. Tsopouroglou, C. Zafeiris, A. Živković and D. Chatsidis, giving PAOK creativity and work rate in the 4-2-3-1 they have used in all three Europa League matches. In attack, T. Ali, M. Balde, D. Berdos, B. Dunga, A. Jeremejeff and A. Mythou offer different profiles from target men to mobile forwards. Expect PAOK to maintain their 4-2-3-1, with the attacking midfield trio key to breaking down Anderlecht’s compact block.

Anderlecht Team News

No significant absences reported.

PAOK Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Anderlecht:

• None reported.

PAOK:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Anderlecht vs PAOK

Exactly 3 distinct betting angles based on current stats and prices:

• Result Tip: Double chance Anderlecht or Draw. With the prediction model giving Anderlecht a 45% win probability and the draw also at 45%, PAOK are rated at just 10% for an away win. The market, however, slightly favours PAOK: home odds range from 2.80 to 2.94 (implied roughly 34.0–35.7%), while away odds range from 2.55 to 2.68 (implied about 37.3–39.2%), with draws at 3.00–3.15 (31.7–33.3%). Given Anderlecht’s unbeaten record (2W, 1D) and first-leg win, covering both home win and draw looks safer than backing either side outright.
• Goals Tip: Over 1.5 total goals. Both teams average 1.7 goals scored per game in Europa League (5 in 3 matches each), while conceding 0.7 (Anderlecht) and 1.0 (PAOK). Only one of Anderlecht’s three matches has stayed under 1.5, and two of PAOK’s three have gone over 1.5. The first leg finished 1-0, but with PAOK now forced to chase the game, a more open second leg is likely. Look for an Over 1.5 goals price in the main goals market from the listed bookmakers.
• Value Tip: Both Teams to Score – Yes (BTTS). Anderlecht have scored in all three Europa League matches and have failed to keep a clean sheet in two of them. PAOK have scored in 2 of 3, including a 3-2 away win, and generally open up when needing a result. The tactical setup – Anderlecht protecting a narrow lead, PAOK pushing forward – favours chances at both ends. With the Match Winner odds relatively tight (home 2.80–2.94, away 2.55–2.68, draw 3.00–3.15), the BTTS market could offer more attractive value than simply picking a side.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.