AC Milan vs Benfica Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

AC Milan open their UEFA Europa League League Stage campaign with a glamour tie against Benfica in Milan on 16 September 2026. Although the venue name is not confirmed, the clash in the city of Milan brings together two European heavyweights with very different recent continental trajectories.

From a standings perspective, both clubs start on zero points, but Benfica arrive as one of the early pacesetters on paper, listed 4th in the overall League Round ranking, while AC Milan sit 23rd. With the League Stage format placing a premium on every result to secure a favourable route towards the play-offs, this match could be pivotal for both sides’ ambitions.

For AC Milan, this is a chance to reassert themselves in Europe after a quiet start to the 2026 Europa League cycle, with no competitive fixtures or goals yet recorded in this competition. Benfica, by contrast, already have six Europa League matches in their current statistics sample, scoring freely and building momentum. That contrast, combined with historical head-to-head and betting markets, makes this one of the standout Europa League predictions and betting angles of the opening League Stage round.

AC Milan vs Benfica Key Stats

• AC Milan are currently ranked 23rd in the Europa League League Round standings, with 0 points and 0 goals scored or conceded so far.
• The last meeting between these sides on 28 July 2019 in the International Champions Cup ended AC Milan 0-1 Benfica at Gillette Stadium.
• Benfica’s Europa League tournament statistics show 19 goals scored and 6 conceded across 6 matches, averaging 3.2 goals for and 1.0 against per game, with 1 clean sheet.

AC Milan vs Benfica — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 23 vs 4
• Points: 0 vs 0
• Goals For: 0 vs 0
• Goals Against: 0 vs 0
• Clean Sheets: AC Milan 0 vs Benfica 1 (tournament statistics)

The standings table is still blank in terms of goals and results for both teams in this League Stage, but the ranking positions already hint at expectations. Benfica’s 4th place label in the League Round reflects their strong Europa League statistics: four wins from six, 19 goals scored and only 6 conceded. AC Milan, in 23rd with a “Play Offs” description attached to their status, are projected as a mid-pack contender needing big results against top opposition to climb.

Because AC Milan’s Europa League record for this season shows 0 matches played, there is no current tournament form to lean on. Benfica, however, have been prolific at home (14 goals in 3 games) and solid away (5 goals in 3), suggesting they can carry their attacking threat into a tough away night in Milan. With both sides level on points but not on rhythm, the early League Stage context tilts slightly towards the Portuguese side.

AC Milan vs Benfica Key Matchups

AC Milan attack unit vs V. Pavlidis

AC Milan’s forward line features options like Gonçalo Ramos, Christian Pulišić, Samuel Chukwueze and experienced creators such as Luka Modrić and Ruben Loftus-Cheek. However, none of their players have registered Europa League goals or assists in the current dataset, leaving their tournament attacking profile as an unknown.

Benfica, by contrast, are spearheaded by V. Pavlidis, who has been one of the standout performers in the Europa League so far. The Greek forward has 5 goals and 1 assist in just 3 appearances, and he also appears at the top of the assists and yellow cards lists for Benfica, underlining how central he is to their attacking and overall play. Containing Pavlidis will be critical for AC Milan’s defence; any space in and around the box could quickly be punished given his current scoring rate.

AC Milan midfield vs Rafa and supporting cast

In midfield, AC Milan can call on Modrić, Loftus-Cheek, Yunus Musah and Adrien Rabiot to control tempo and protect their back line. Again, there are no Europa League-specific stats yet for these players, but their experience suggests Milan will look to dominate possession at home.

They will be tested by Benfica’s fluid attacking midfielders. Rafa has 2 goals and 1 assist in 4 Europa League appearances, while A. Schjelderup and D. Lukebakio both contribute with 1 goal and 1 assist each in limited minutes. Further back, H. Sudakov, J. Kamiński and L. Barreiro all have 1 assist apiece, indicating Benfica can create from multiple zones. If Milan’s midfield cannot disrupt this supply line, Pavlidis and the rest of the front line will get the chances they need.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

The recent head-to-head history between AC Milan and Benfica is sparse but instructive, with Benfica edging the latest encounter in a neutral-venue friendly competition.

• 28 July 2019: AC Milan 0-1 Benfica (International Champions Cup)

AC Milan vs Benfica Prediction

All available indicators point to a clash between an untested AC Milan side in this Europa League campaign and a Benfica team already in full stride. Benfica’s recent tournament form is excellent: 4 wins, 1 draw and just 1 defeat from 6 matches, with a potent attack averaging 3.2 goals per game and only 1.0 conceded. Their last five matches across competitions in the prediction data show 18 goals scored and 4 conceded, underlining both attacking firepower and defensive stability.

AC Milan, meanwhile, have no recorded Europa League fixtures yet, so their form is effectively a blank slate. That uncertainty is reflected in the prediction probabilities: the win chances are split 0% for an AC Milan victory, 50% for a draw and 50% for a Benfica win. In other words, the modelling strongly favours Benfica not to lose, with the away side given as much chance of victory as the stalemate and Milan seen as clear underdogs.

Given Benfica’s strong scoring trend and Milan’s home advantage, a tight but slightly away-leaning match flow seems likely. Milan should be competitive, especially with their squad quality, but Benfica’s sharper tournament rhythm and clinical edge in front of goal give them the edge.

Predicted Score: AC Milan 1-2 Benfica

AC Milan Recent Form

AC Milan enter this Europa League League Stage without any recorded matches in the current tournament: 0 games played, 0 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses and no goals for or against. Their tournament form is therefore unknown, and this opener against Benfica will be their first true benchmark of where they stand at European level in 2026.

Benfica Recent Form

Benfica’s recent Europa League form is impressive. Their league form string reads “LWWDWW” across 6 fixtures, with 4 wins, 1 draw and just 1 defeat. They have scored 19 goals and conceded only 6, including a 6-1 home win and a 3-1 away victory as their biggest results. In their last five matches in the broader prediction sample, they have scored 18 goals and conceded 4, highlighting a side that consistently creates chances and keeps things relatively tight at the back.

AC Milan Possible Starting Lineup

GK: M. Maignan; Defenders: M. Gabbia, F. Tomori, K. De Winter, D. Bartesaghi; Midfielders: L. Modrić, R. Loftus-Cheek, Y. Musah; Forwards: C. Pulišić, Gonçalo Ramos, S. Chukwueze.

AC Milan have a deep and versatile squad. Maignan offers reliability in goal, while Tomori, Gabbia and De Winter provide a strong defensive core. In midfield, Modrić’s experience, combined with Loftus-Cheek’s physical presence and Musah’s energy, can help Milan control possession and resist Benfica’s press. Up front, the combination of Pulišić, Gonçalo Ramos and Chukwueze promises pace, movement and finishing ability, which will be crucial if Milan are to exploit any spaces behind Benfica’s back line.

Benfica Possible Starting Lineup

GK: A. Trubin; Defenders: A. Bah, C. Lenglet, Tomás Araújo, S. Dahl; Midfielders: João Palhinha, H. Sudakov, J. Kamiński; Forwards: Rafa, A. Schjelderup, V. Pavlidis.

Benfica’s likely XI is built around balance and attacking depth. Trubin anchors the side in goal, with Lenglet and Tomás Araújo offering aerial strength and composure at centre-back. Bah and Dahl can provide width from full-back. In midfield, Palhinha screens the defence, while Sudakov and Kamiński, both with Europa League assists, link play and support the attack. Up front, Rafa’s creativity, Schjelderup’s versatility and Pavlidis’ prolific finishing form a front line capable of troubling any defence.

AC Milan Team News

No significant absences reported.

Benfica Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

AC Milan:

• None reported.

Benfica:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: AC Milan vs Benfica

Below are three data-driven betting ideas based on current form, probabilities and odds. Always consider your own risk tolerance and staking strategy.

• Result Tip: Benfica Draw No Bet The prediction probabilities give Benfica a 50% chance of winning and 50% for a draw, with effectively no support for a Milan victory. However, bookmakers slightly favour AC Milan: home odds range from 2.05 to 2.14 (implied probability roughly 46.7%–49.0%), while away odds range from 3.20 to 3.49 (about 28.7%–31.3%). Given Benfica’s strong Europa League form (LWWDWW and 19 goals scored), taking Benfica on a safer “Draw No Bet” line (where available) looks appealing, protecting against the high draw probability.
• Goals Tip: Over 2.5 Match Goals Benfica’s Europa League matches have been high-scoring: 19 goals for and 6 against in 6 games, averaging 4.2 total goals per match. Their last five games in the wider sample average 4.4 total goals (18 for, 4 against). With Milan’s attacking talent at home and Benfica’s aggressive style, over 2.5 goals is a logical angle. While exact over/under odds are not listed in the data, the attacking metrics and Benfica’s scoring pattern support a goals-based play.
• Value Tip: V. Pavlidis to Score Anytime (where offered) Pavlidis has 5 goals and 1 assist in 3 Europa League appearances, making him Benfica’s clear focal point in attack. He also appears at the top of the yellow-card and assists charts, indicating he is heavily involved in all phases. Against an AC Milan defence that has yet to be tested in this tournament, backing Pavlidis to score anytime offers a strong value narrative. Use the match-winner odds (Benfica 3.20–3.49) as a guide that the market underestimates the away side slightly, which can translate into a more generous price on their main striker.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.