CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv: UEFA Europa League Preview

CSKA Sofia host Maccabi Tel Aviv at the National Stadium Vasil Levski in the UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round, carrying a commanding 3–0 advantage from the first leg played on neutral ground in Batumi. With progression almost in their hands, the key question for bettors is how aggressively CSKA approach the second leg and whether Maccabi can respond after being outplayed.

Form-wise, the prediction model clearly leans toward the Bulgarians. CSKA’s league block shows a strong “WWDWW” sequence from five Europa fixtures, unbeaten with four wins and one draw. Over those five games they have scored 9 goals (1.8 per match) and conceded just 3 (0.6 per match), including three clean sheets. Their attack has been consistent across the 90 minutes, with goals spread almost evenly through all time intervals and a slight spike between 16–30 minutes (2 of 9 goals). Defensively, they tend to wobble late: 2 of the 3 goals conceded have come in the 76–90 range, something to keep in mind for late-goal markets.

Maccabi Tel Aviv’s Europa form is shorter but more volatile at “WWL”. They have played three matches, winning two and losing one, with 6 goals scored (2.0 per match) and 3 conceded (1.0 per match). Their attacking numbers are heavily skewed by a 5–0 away win, while at “home” they managed only 1 goal in two games and conceded 3. They do share a similar late-goal profile: their goals for are spread across all 15-minute windows except 31–45, and their goals against are front-loaded in the first 30 minutes, indicating vulnerability early in games.

The prediction engine’s comparison indices underline CSKA’s edge in overall form and attacking balance. In the form index, CSKA lead 68 to 32, and in attack 60 to 40, while defense is rated level at 50 to 50. That matches the raw stats: CSKA are more stable across five fixtures, whereas Maccabi’s numbers are inflated by one big win and badly dented by the 0–3 loss in the first leg.

Head-to-head data is limited but decisive. There has been one competitive meeting, the first leg on 6 August 2026 at Batumi Arena, where Maccabi were designated as the home side and CSKA as away. CSKA won 3–0, leading 2–0 at half-time and closing the game out without conceding. That result sits behind the comparison’s head-to-head index of 100 to 0 and goals index of 100 to 0 in CSKA’s favour. It also explains why the prediction model lists CSKA as the “winner” with the comment “Win or draw” and gives advice of “Double chance : CSKA Sofia or draw”.

From a probabilities standpoint, the model assigns 45% to a CSKA win, 45% to the draw, and only 10% to a Maccabi victory. This is much more conservative on the away side than the market. Bookmaker odds for the match winner are clustered roughly in these ranges: CSKA Sofia 2.23–2.41, draw 2.98–3.40, Maccabi Tel Aviv 2.73–3.14. Converting to implied probabilities, the home win sits around 41–45%, the draw around 29–34%, and the away win around 32–37%. So bookmakers see this as close to a coin-flip between CSKA and Maccabi, with the draw as the least likely outcome, whereas the model strongly suppresses Maccabi’s win chances and boosts the draw.

That discrepancy creates a clear strategic angle. The official prediction explicitly recommends “Double chance : CSKA Sofia or draw”, and the internal probabilities back that up (a combined 90% for home or draw). Given the three-goal cushion, CSKA can afford to manage the game, and a risk-averse, controlled performance is highly compatible with either a home win or a draw. Maccabi need to chase the tie, which increases their scoring upside but also exposes them to counters from a side that has already beaten them 3–0.

Betting verdict: the data-driven play is to follow the model’s advice and back CSKA Sofia or draw in the double-chance market. For those seeking a bit more risk, the strong defensive records of both teams and CSKA’s low concession rate in Europe (3 goals in 5 matches) suggest that CSKA Sofia or draw combined with under 4.5 goals is also a logical extension, but the core value remains firmly on the double chance in favour of the hosts.